Markets Pause: Weak Jobs & Cheap Oil Weigh on Sentiment

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities paused on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 (IVV) dipping -0.28% as investors digested weak labor market signals and a sharp decline in the energy sector. A surprise rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% weighed on sentiment, suggesting the labor market may be cooling faster than anticipated. The day’s most significant move came from the oil patch, where crude prices tumbled to four-year lows below $55 per barrel, sending the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) crashing -3.05%. Despite the broader weakness, the technology sector held firm, helping the Nasdaq post a modest gain.

U.S. Size & Style

Growth continued to outperform value across the capitalization spectrum, with Large Growth (IVW) standing out as the only style box to finish in positive territory, gaining +0.12%. Conversely, Large Value (IVE) lagged significantly, falling -0.77%, dragged down by its heavy weighting in energy and financials. Small and mid-caps also struggled, with Small Value (IJS) dropping -0.74% amid economic growth concerns.

Name (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) -0.77% -0.76% 1.15% 4.49% 12.46% 9.62%
Large Cap (IVV) -0.28% -0.43% 1.03% 3.17% 16.97% 13.31%
Large Growth (IVW) +0.12% -0.16% 0.95% 2.05% 20.76% 16.40%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.74% -0.86% 4.53% 2.50% 7.99% 3.82%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.66% -0.83% 3.75% 1.87% 7.88% 2.86%
Mid Growth (IJK) -0.52% -0.88% 3.04% 1.29% 7.53% 1.73%
Small Value (IJS) -0.74% -1.06% 5.12% 5.41% 8.00% 2.29%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.73% -1.05% 5.10% 4.10% 7.71% 1.63%
Small Growth (IJT) -0.71% -1.10% 5.00% 2.81% 7.35% 0.76%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

Sector performance was starkly divided, with Technology (XLK) leading the way at +0.18%, acting as a safe haven amid the broader sell-off. At the bottom of the table, Energy (XLE) collapsed -3.05%, its worst single-day performance in months. The pain within the energy complex was widespread, with the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES) industry plummeting nearly -5.00% as crude prices broke key support levels.

Sector (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Technology (XLK) +0.18% -0.79% -1.05% 4.81% 23.19% 18.83%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.16% 1.02% 5.62% 0.87% 9.41% 3.03%
Communication Services (XLC) +0.07% 0.09% 4.78% -1.23% 21.56% 16.44%
Materials (XLB) -0.27% -0.33% 3.72% -0.26% 8.52% 3.78%
Utilities (XLU) -0.42% 0.49% -3.02% 2.99% 16.09% 15.03%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.45% -0.18% 2.61% 0.09% 2.78% -0.24%
Industrials (XLI) -0.59% -0.43% 2.66% 3.21% 19.65% 15.19%
Financial (XLF) -0.64% -0.56% 4.18% 2.35% 14.22% 12.11%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.88% -0.49% -0.98% -2.83% 2.00% -1.60%
Health Care (XLV) -1.30% 0.01% 1.48% 13.03% 13.48% 12.56%
Energy (XLE) -3.05% -3.74% -4.78% -1.57% 4.83% 3.76%

Global Thematic

Thematic performance showed massive divergence, with risk-on assets in cannabis and crypto defying the broader market gloom. Cannabis (CNBS) surged an eye-popping +18.37%, likely driven by renewed legislative hopes or speculative buying. Meanwhile, the energy slump weighed heavily on infrastructure themes, with Midstream (MLPX) falling -2.02%.

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

International developed markets were generally softer, with Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) declining -0.46%. Asian markets saw the most significant weakness; South Korea (EWY) fell -1.26% and Japan (EWJ) dropped -1.13%. European markets were more resilient, with France (EWQ) finishing nearly flat at -0.03%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) -0.46% 0.15% 1.46% 3.53% 30.03% 26.74%
Australia (EWA) -0.59% -0.97% 1.21% -4.08% 11.75% 7.80%
Canada (EWC) -0.64% -0.81% 5.04% 6.74% 33.53% 30.47%
France (EWQ) -0.03% 0.64% 0.73% 3.08% 28.73% 27.14%
Germany (EWG) -0.17% -0.36% 2.86% 2.14% 34.27% 29.43%
Hong Kong (EWH) -0.88% -0.20% -4.15% 0.39% 33.80% 33.20%
Japan (EWJ) -1.13% -0.11% -0.08% 3.15% 26.06% 24.19%
Netherlands (EWN) -0.32% -0.05% 0.76% 5.14% 33.41% 29.56%
South Korea (EWY) -1.26% -1.20% -2.73% 13.47% 79.91% 68.72%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.07% 1.11% 2.55% 6.38% 30.86% 27.72%
U.K. (EWU) -0.44% 0.64% 1.85% 3.98% 31.12% 28.09%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets underperformed their developed peers, with Emerging (EEM) slipping -0.62%. Brazil (EWZ) was the day’s biggest loser, shedding -2.84% as commodity prices weakened. On the positive side, Malaysia (EWM) bucked the trend with a solid gain of +0.46%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Emerging (EEM) -0.62% -0.92% -2.21% 1.35% 29.74% 26.00%
Brazil (EWZ) -2.84% -2.08% -1.67% 6.31% 47.58% 40.62%
China (MCHI) -0.71% -1.76% -4.83% -6.82% 30.22% 30.92%
India (INDA) -0.28% -0.36% -3.06% -1.71% 0.59% -3.98%
Indonesia (EIDO) -0.15% 0.38% 2.46% 5.50% 4.64% -0.65%
Malaysia (EWM) +0.46% 0.87% 2.89% 6.56% 13.30% 14.40%
Mexico (EWW) -1.24% -1.53% 3.55% 4.20% 51.36% 42.21%
South Africa (EZA) -0.43% 0.99% 3.47% 13.63% 67.33% 50.85%
Taiwan (EWT) -0.27% -0.26% -1.89% 0.97% 23.52% 21.24%
Thailand (THD) -0.87% 1.51% 3.26% -1.85% 2.52% -0.35%

Fixed Income

Treasury yields dipped slightly on the back of the weaker-than-expected labor data, providing a tailwind for long-duration assets. Government Long (SPTL) was the top performer, rising +0.49%. Credit spreads remained largely stable, allowing high-yield bonds to post modest gains.

Category (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Taxable Core (AGG) +0.19% 0.29% 0.43% 0.33% 7.07% 6.20%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) +0.19% 0.26% 0.47% 0.51% 7.26% 6.44%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) +0.07% 0.26% 0.85% 1.30% 9.20% 8.87%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) +0.01% 0.01% 0.32% 0.97% 3.99% 4.18%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) +0.10% 0.15% 0.55% 0.81% 5.81% 5.87%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) +0.42% 0.47% -0.12% -1.27% 6.50% 3.84%
Government Short (SPTS) +0.03% 0.10% 0.52% 0.90% 4.85% 5.16%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) +0.19% 0.28% 0.48% 0.52% 7.41% 6.87%
Government Long (SPTL) +0.49% 0.60% -0.53% -1.21% 5.47% 2.81%
Inflation Protected (TIP) +0.02% -0.05% -0.23% -0.74% 6.69% 5.75%
Corporate (SPIB) +0.09% 0.18% 0.69% 0.63% 7.64% 7.08%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) +0.06% 0.11% 1.02% 0.87% 8.13% 7.45%
Bank Loans (BKLN) +0.00% 0.05% 0.91% 1.81% 6.45% 6.56%
Preferred Stock (PFF) +0.11% 0.18% 1.19% -1.61% 5.04% 3.32%
Convertible (CWB) -0.12% -1.34% 0.78% 0.33% 16.20% 11.87%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) +0.21% 0.35% 0.59% 0.65% 8.07% 7.32%
International USD (BNDX) +0.12% 0.22% -0.11% 0.30% 2.89% 2.43%
International (IGOV) +0.09% 0.31% 0.24% -1.88% 10.05% 7.50%
Emerging USD (EMB) +0.27% 0.41% 1.10% 2.43% 13.84% 12.03%
Emerging (EMLC) +0.23% 0.27% 1.17% 1.75% 17.85% 15.81%
Municipal Short (SUB) +0.02% 0.05% 0.39% 0.23% 3.42% 3.44%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) +0.14% 0.13% 0.29% 1.09% 3.39% 2.75%
Municipal Long (MLN) +0.00% -0.06% -0.49% 0.98% 1.14% 0.45%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) +0.20% 0.16% 1.05% 1.33% 2.37% 2.03%

Commodities

Commodities were hit hard by the sell-off in energy. The WTI Crude Oil (USO) fund dropped -2.53% as global supply concerns persisted. Broad Commodities (DJP) finished down -1.05%. However, precious metals offered a bright spot, with Platinum (PPLT) rallying +2.96%.

Commodity (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) -1.05% -1.42% -0.92% 3.40% 14.71% 15.93%
Energy (DBE) -2.46% -3.31% -8.99% -9.03% -4.72% -2.25%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) -2.53% -3.84% -7.30% -12.55% -12.42% -10.22%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) -2.51% -3.72% -7.48% -11.80% -9.18% -8.14%
Natural Gas (UNG) -2.89% -4.95% -16.90% -8.47% -28.02% -13.26%
Gasoline (UGA) -2.87% -4.17% -12.74% -8.35% -3.78% -2.42%
Precious Metals (DBP) +0.04% 0.91% 9.26% 21.82% 69.44% 67.62%
Gold (GLD) +0.02% 0.11% 5.30% 16.58% 63.50% 61.67%
Silver (SLV) -0.65% 2.91% 25.61% 49.56% 119.26% 107.66%
Platinum (PPLT) +2.96% 5.50% 19.45% 32.25% 102.01% 95.79%
Palladium (PALL) +1.90% 7.04% 14.24% 36.17% 74.94% 68.58%
Industrial Metals (DBB) -0.41% -0.23% 2.55% 7.79% 17.40% 15.60%
Copper (CPER) -0.78% 0.18% 5.01% 13.61% 30.72% 25.82%
Agriculture (DBA) -0.34% -1.02% 0.61% -5.44% -1.28% -1.56%
Corn (CORN) -0.63% -0.90% -1.73% -2.06% -6.29% -4.19%
Soybeans (SOYB) -0.85% -1.02% -4.58% -0.49% 3.77% 6.35%
Wheat (WEAT) -1.58% -2.92% -5.32% -7.09% -17.30% -16.96%
Sugar (CANE) -0.51% -0.97% 1.53% -9.00% -15.53% -20.24%

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets decoupled from the risk-off tone in equities. Solana (SOLZ) led the charge, rising +2.89%. Bitcoin (IBIT) also showed strength, climbing +2.16% to reclaim key levels.

Asset (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Ethereum (ETHA) +0.72% -4.25% -5.95% -34.47% -11.90% -27.40%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) +1.83% -3.24% -7.43% -28.56%
Bitcoin (IBIT) +2.16% -2.91% -7.04% -25.10% -6.30% -17.45%
XRP +2.52% -3.66%
Solana (SOLZ) +2.89% -2.33% -8.46% -47.97%

What to Watch Today

All eyes turn to the 8:30 AM ET release of the Monthly Retail Sales report, a critical gauge of consumer health as the holiday shopping season enters its final stretch. With unemployment ticking higher, investors are anxious to see if consumption is beginning to buckle under the weight of a cooling labor market. A weaker-than-expected print could reignite recession fears, while a resilient number might offer reassurance that the consumer remains a pillar of economic stability.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.