Macro Overview
Broad U.S. equity markets posted modest losses during Thursday’s session, with the S&P 500 (IVV) index declining 0.39%. International exposure presented a deeper drag on portfolios, particularly in emerging markets where the MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) index shed 1.63%. Fixed income markets faced duration headwinds as the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) index dipped 0.16%. Conversely, physical assets caught a strong bid, driving the Bloomberg Commodity (DJP) index higher by 1.11% on the day.
U.S. Size & Style
Investors exhibited a clear preference for value-oriented equities over growth counterparts across all capitalization tiers. The S&P 500 Value (IVE) index advanced 0.31%, sharply outpacing the S&P 500 Growth (IVW) index’s 1.00% decline. Small-cap metrics reflect underlying momentum, with the S&P SmallCap 600 Value (IJS) index entering overbought territory at a 72.98 RSI reading. The broader S&P SmallCap 600 (IJR) index also displays technically elevated levels, flashing an RSI of 70.44 despite finishing flat on the session.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Value (IVE) | 0.31% | 5.32% | 2.46% | 4.52% | 25.15% |
| S&P MidCap 400 Value (IJJ) | 0.23% | 8.33% | 2.75% | 7.83% | 28.03% |
| S&P SmallCap 600 Value (IJS) | 0.06% | 9.70% | 5.46% | 12.76% | 45.08% |
| S&P MidCap 400 (IJH) | 0.00% | 8.29% | 4.55% | 10.32% | 32.32% |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (IJR) | -0.04% | 10.32% | 6.01% | 12.98% | 40.39% |
| S&P SmallCap 600 Growth (IJT) | -0.11% | 11.02% | 6.55% | 13.08% | 35.75% |
| S&P MidCap 400 Growth (IJK) | -0.27% | 8.07% | 6.16% | 12.53% | 36.11% |
| S&P 500 (IVV) | -0.39% | 8.11% | 3.09% | 4.19% | 33.97% |
| S&P 500 Growth (IVW) | -1.00% | 10.55% | 3.54% | 3.76% | 41.96% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Defensive postures dominated sectoral flows as the Utilities Select Sector (XLU) index surged 2.72% to lead all primary equity segments. The Industrial Select Sector (XLI) index also delivered a strong 1.77% gain, counterbalancing weakness in highly weighted growth areas. The Technology Select Sector (XLK) index fell to the bottom of the board with a 1.42% drawdown, though it remains technically overbought with an RSI of 72.55. Communication Services (XLC) followed suit, shedding 0.42% as risk appetite compressed in high-multiple cohorts.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities Select Sector (XLU) | 2.72% | 2.93% | 9.04% | 8.71% | 21.00% |
| Industrial Select Sector (XLI) | 1.77% | 6.76% | 6.29% | 12.53% | 39.78% |
| Consumer Staples Select Sector (XLP) | 1.67% | 2.83% | 1.25% | 8.07% | 4.92% |
| Real Estate Select Sector (XLRE) | 1.15% | 8.22% | 7.28% | 9.67% | 12.37% |
| Energy Select Sector (XLE) | 0.78% | -4.44% | 16.58% | 28.27% | 44.79% |
| Materials Select Sector (XLB) | -0.04% | 8.96% | 4.14% | 14.75% | 29.64% |
| Health Care Select Sector (XLV) | -0.10% | 1.02% | -6.76% | -5.14% | 9.66% |
| Communication Services Select Sector (XLC) | -0.42% | 4.15% | 0.69% | 0.04% | 29.27% |
| Financial Select Sector (XLF) | -0.79% | 5.13% | -1.89% | -4.94% | 10.21% |
| Consumer Discretionary Select Sector (XLY) | -1.00% | 6.92% | -4.19% | -1.21% | 24.69% |
| Technology Select Sector (XLK) | -1.42% | 13.79% | 7.54% | 8.38% | 58.27% |
Global Thematic
Infrastructure and electrification narratives outperformed, spearheaded by the U.S. Infrastructure (IFRA) index which climbed 2.82%. The Solar (TAN) index followed closely with a 2.75% advance, extending its recent recovery trend. In contrast, the cannabis sector experienced severe distribution, pushing the Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) index down 17.42%. The Seymour Cannabis (CNBS) index similarly plunged 16.48%, marking the segment as the absolute worst-performing thematic category.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day |
|---|---|
| Top 5 Leaders | |
| U.S. Infrastructure (IFRA) | 2.82% |
| Solar (TAN) | 2.75% |
| U.S. Electrification (ZAP) | 2.49% |
| Electrification (VOLT) | 2.47% |
| U.S. Infrastructure Development (PAVE) | 2.21% |
| Bottom 5 Laggards | |
| Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) | -17.42% |
| Seymour Cannabis (CNBS) | -16.48% |
| Alternative Harvest (MJ) | -13.21% |
| Cloud Computing (WCLD) | -6.39% |
| Drone and Modern Warfare (JEDI) | -5.95% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
Asian markets weighed heavily on global aggregates, with the MSCI South Korea (EWY) index tumbling 3.34%. The MSCI Taiwan (EWT) index dropped 2.26%, potentially signaling a near-term top as its RSI previously stretched into overbought territory above 71. European exposures demonstrated relative resilience, highlighted by the MSCI Switzerland (EWL) index edging out a 0.05% gain. The MSCI France (EWQ) and MSCI Germany (EWG) indices contained their respective losses to 0.33% and 0.95%, significantly outpacing their emerging market counterparts.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets | |||||
| Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) | -0.72% | 5.63% | 1.27% | 5.43% | 26.86% |
| MSCI Switzerland (EWL) | 0.05% | 6.49% | 0.48% | 2.00% | 19.33% |
| MSCI Canada (EWC) | -0.26% | 6.68% | 3.71% | 7.25% | 41.49% |
| MSCI France (EWQ) | -0.33% | 5.51% | -0.68% | 0.47% | 15.79% |
| MSCI Australia (EWA) | -0.54% | 4.20% | 6.90% | 11.76% | 25.94% |
| MSCI U.K. (EWU) | -0.74% | 5.03% | 2.70% | 6.41% | 29.65% |
| MSCI Japan (EWJ) | -0.79% | 4.21% | 2.97% | 7.84% | 31.11% |
| MSCI Germany (EWG) | -0.95% | 6.61% | -3.59% | -1.36% | 10.85% |
| MSCI Hong Kong (EWH) | -1.02% | 3.93% | 2.78% | 9.46% | 43.60% |
| MSCI Netherlands (EWN) | -1.38% | 7.77% | -0.08% | 9.21% | 37.18% |
| MSCI South Korea (EWY) | -3.34% | 12.54% | 27.65% | 54.90% | 177.01% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) | -1.63% | 8.79% | 5.55% | 13.96% | 48.39% |
| MSCI Malaysia (EWM) | 0.07% | -0.78% | 1.49% | 6.76% | 31.36% |
| MSCI Mexico (EWW) | -0.92% | 9.16% | 2.01% | 11.94% | 42.54% |
| MSCI India (INDA) | -1.14% | 3.74% | -3.57% | -8.58% | -7.09% |
| MSCI Brazil (EWZ) | -1.23% | 8.79% | 9.57% | 26.19% | 60.72% |
| MSCI China (MCHI) | -1.77% | 3.02% | -8.72% | -4.66% | 13.32% |
| MSCI Taiwan (EWT) | -2.26% | 16.74% | 20.84% | 32.60% | 93.67% |
| MSCI Indonesia (EIDO) | -2.42% | 2.01% | -17.20% | -15.83% | -1.74% |
| MSCI Thailand (THD) | -2.62% | 1.44% | 7.28% | 14.81% | 34.87% |
| MSCI South Africa (EZA) | -2.88% | 7.72% | -9.30% | 0.64% | 55.43% |
Fixed Income
Interest rate sensitivity dictated performance outcomes across the fixed income complex, leaving extended durations structurally vulnerable. The Long-Term Corporate (BLV) index and Long-Term Treasury (SPTL) index fell 0.27% and 0.23% respectively, underperforming the broader aggregate benchmarks. Meanwhile, ultra-short paper provided expected ballast, as the 1-3 Month Treasury (BIL) index nudged 0.02% higher. Emerging market debt localized the most acute selling pressure, evidenced by the J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency (EMLC) index sliding 0.66%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | -0.05% | 0.48% | 0.46% | 0.44% | 4.32% |
| Taxable Core (AGG) | -0.16% | 0.77% | 0.32% | 0.55% | 5.87% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.19% | 0.86% | 0.32% | 0.60% | 6.24% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | -0.27% | 1.31% | -0.31% | 0.48% | 6.55% |
| Government | |||||
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | 0.16% | 1.25% | 1.22% | 1.51% | 5.09% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.02% | 0.30% | 0.86% | 1.09% | 3.95% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | -0.03% | 0.38% | 0.50% | 0.50% | 3.71% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.14% | 0.43% | 0.45% | 0.21% | 4.52% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | -0.23% | 0.74% | -0.30% | 0.26% | 4.20% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.06% | 3.90% | -0.20% | 2.86% | 11.53% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.08% | 8.96% | 7.87% | 13.54% | 35.25% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.15% | 0.85% | 0.38% | 0.53% | 6.80% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.15% | 0.76% | -0.18% | -0.23% | 6.59% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | -0.16% | 1.66% | 0.51% | 1.15% | 9.21% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.22% | 0.92% | 0.55% | 0.90% | 7.38% |
| International & Emerging Markets | |||||
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.19% | 0.40% | -0.08% | 0.19% | 2.03% |
| International (IGOV) | -0.19% | 0.95% | -1.16% | -0.02% | 1.66% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | -0.47% | 2.48% | 0.51% | 0.97% | 13.38% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | -0.66% | 2.23% | -0.90% | 0.94% | 12.87% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Municipal Long (MLN) | 0.06% | 2.13% | 2.12% | 2.05% | 9.13% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | 0.02% | 1.13% | 0.53% | 1.00% | 7.08% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | 0.00% | 2.07% | 1.16% | 1.24% | 7.58% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | -0.01% | 0.25% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 3.96% |
Commodities
Energy markets orchestrated a powerful rally, with the United States Brent Oil (BNO) index and United States Oil (USO) index advancing 4.29% and 4.11%, respectively. Agricultural commodities added to the inflationary impulse, propelled by a 2.41% spike in the Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) index. Conversely, precious metals relinquished recent gains in a broad tactical retreat. The Physical Palladium (PALL) index plummeted 5.60%, while the broader DB Precious Metals (DBP) index lost 1.44% on the session.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | 1.11% | 7.08% | 17.06% | 29.57% | 44.43% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) | 2.41% | 3.22% | 12.82% | 17.23% | 1.12% |
| DB Agriculture (DBA) | 1.00% | 2.09% | 6.45% | 7.37% | 5.24% |
| Teucrium Sugar (CANE) | 0.65% | -10.62% | -2.15% | -4.25% | -20.10% |
| Teucrium Corn (CORN) | 0.38% | -1.24% | 4.94% | 3.10% | -4.24% |
| Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) | -0.29% | 1.03% | 9.74% | 11.80% | 12.65% |
| Energy | |||||
| United States Brent Oil (BNO) | 4.29% | 10.07% | 71.72% | 86.09% | 91.01% |
| United States Oil (USO) | 4.11% | 21.85% | 82.18% | 94.79% | 97.97% |
| Natural Gas (UGA) | 3.48% | 17.00% | 67.38% | 79.80% | 89.89% |
| DB Energy (DBE) | 3.18% | 10.49% | 64.11% | 76.75% | 82.24% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| DB Industrial Metals (DBB) | -0.63% | 10.15% | 3.67% | 9.72% | 41.42% |
| United States Copper (CPER) | -1.70% | 10.23% | 1.20% | 5.72% | 21.70% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | -0.97% | 6.68% | -5.89% | 8.76% | 41.95% |
| DB Precious Metals (DBP) | -1.44% | 6.87% | -12.18% | 7.54% | 53.02% |
| iShares Silver Trust (SLV) | -2.83% | 9.46% | -26.40% | 6.15% | 123.76% |
| Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT) | -3.36% | 7.14% | -27.74% | -2.23% | 106.10% |
| Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) | -5.60% | 2.60% | -28.11% | -8.65% | 54.86% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets traded defensively in sympathy with the broader compression observed in growth-oriented, long-duration equities. The Ethereum Trust (ETHA) index absorbed the heaviest selling pressure, retreating 3.53% for the session. The Solana (SOLZ) index mirrored this downside weakness with a 2.52% decline. Even the flagship Bitcoin (IBIT) index failed to decouple, falling 1.56% to continue its double-digit year-to-date drawdown.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Trust (ETHA) | -3.53% | 7.43% | -21.22% | -22.02% | 29.08% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | -2.52% | -6.98% | -33.31% | -32.06% | -48.95% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -1.57% | 8.34% | -16.12% | -14.26% | -16.34% |
| Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) | -1.56% | 9.99% | -13.12% | -11.28% | -17.20% |
| Bitwise XRP (XRP) | -0.56% | -0.25% | -25.97% | -21.93% | – |
What to Watch Today
Friday’s trading session will be heavily influenced by the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, serving as a critical gauge for inflationary trajectories. Market participants will also parse through the latest durable goods orders data to assess ongoing business investment momentum. Additionally, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for the month will offer real-time insights into consumer inflation expectations. This concentrated macroeconomic data slate will likely dictate immediate-term pricing across both the Treasury curve and broader equity indices.
