The following is a summary of Quantix Commodities Q4 2025 Newsletter
The New World Order: Why Commodities are Reclaiming Center Stage in 2026
The fourth quarter of 2025 marked a definitive turning point in global markets. According to the latest Quantix Commodities newsletter, we are witnessing a “revolutionary new world order” driven by the convergence of four powerful themes: Deglobalization, Defense Spending, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Debasement.
As the macro environment accelerates into 2026, here is a breakdown of how these shifts are impacting key commodity sectors and what it means for your portfolio.
A Global Pivot Toward Sustainability and Security
The current geopolitical realignment is forcing nations to prioritize independent sovereign sustainability. Every state, at both a public and private level, is becoming increasingly motivated to secure its own supply chains and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. This trend is not just a political talking point—it is actively reshaping how portfolios are constructed.
Precious Metals: The Search for Reliable Collateral
In 2025, Precious Metals emerged as the logical outlet for investors seeking security. Gold and Silver saw historic moves as the private sector looked for “price-dense” assets that could serve as reliable collateral.
While the rally faced a sharp sell-off in early 2026, Quantix notes that private sector ownership remains a tiny fraction of total investment wealth. If the shift toward these assets continues even at a modest pace, the impact on long-term price appreciation and volatility could be significant.
The Petroleum Sector: Energy as a Geopolitical Lever
Energy is once again a primary driver of global politics. While the market entered 2026 with a projected surplus, the subtext is increasingly bullish:
- Capacity Constraints: The surplus is largely due to OPEC regaining market share, leaving limited spare capacity for future surges in demand.
- Production Peaks: The U.S. shale revolution may be reaching its limit, with production projected to decline for the first time in several years.
- Strategic Leverage: Strategic control over supply and distribution is becoming a decisive force in international relations, a reality that financial markets have yet to fully integrate.
Industrial Metals: The Strategic Value of Copper
Copper remains the bellwether for industrial health. Recently, we’ve seen a trend of “strategic hoarding” at the state level. In the U.S., threats of tariffs have already attracted significant inventory builds as the government views domestic supply through a strategic lens. This domestic accumulation has created scarcity in the rest of the world, pushing global prices to all-time highs and highlighting a growing disconnect between regional inventories.
The Emissions Sector: Diverging Priorities
While AI growth and defense spending usually support energy-related commodities, the emissions sector is facing a different reality. Geopolitical priorities are beginning to shift, leading to a divergence between U.S. and European markets. In the U.S., legal challenges to state initiatives have weighed on prices, while in Europe, leadership is starting to question the pace of the planned energy transition in the face of broader economic pressures.
2026 Outlook: From Uncertainty to Clarity
Heading into 2026, the “global macroeconomic uncertainty” of the previous year is giving way to a more certain—if revolutionary—path. As nations focus on their ability to feed, fuel, and defend themselves, the tailwinds for commodities remain strong.
For investors, the current environment presents a compelling opportunity to use commodities as a tool for portfolio differentiation and protection against a volatile transition to this new world order.
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Important Information
While the information in this document, including information from third party sources that has not been independently verified by Quantix, is believed to be accurate, Quantix Commodities LP makes no express warranty as to its completeness or accuracy. The information in this material is only current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. Any statements of opinion constitute only current opinions of Quantix Commodities LP , which are subject to change and which Quantix Commodities LP does not undertake to update. Due to, among other things, the volatile nature of the markets, investment in the fund may only be suitable for certain investors.
Certain of the performance shown in this presentation is hypothetical and does not represent the investment performance or the actual accounts of any investors or any funds. The securities in the hypothetical portfolios were selected with the full benefit of hindsight, after their performance over the period shown was known. The results achieved in our simulations do not guarantee future investment results. The model performance information in this presentation is based on the back‑tested performance of hypothetical investments over the time periods indicated. “Back‑testing” is a process of objectively simulating historical investment returns by applying a set of rules for buying and selling securities, and other assets, backward in time, testing those rules, and hypothetically investing in the securities and other assets that are chosen. Back‑testing is designed to allow investors to understand and evaluate certain strategies by seeing how they would have performed hypothetically during certain time periods.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Back‑tested results also assume that asset allocations would not have changed over time and in response to market conditions, which might have occurred if an actual account had been managed during the time period shown. Quantix Commodities LP may have a different investment perspective and maintain different asset allocations or other recommendations from those shown here.
Benchmarks
The Comex Index serves as a benchmark for global metal prices. These indices are unmanaged and do not reflect fees and expenses and are not available for direct investment.
The London Metals Exchange (LME) is a global commodities exchange that specializes in futures, and options trading for base metals.
Risks
Investing entails risks and there can be no assurance that any investment will achieve profits or avoid incurring losses.
Stock markets are volatile and equity values can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market and economic conditions. Investing in fixed income securities carries risks, including interest rate, credit, and inflation risks. Rising interest rates may reduce their value, and issuers may default, resulting in potential loss of principal and interest. Liquidity risk can also make it difficult to sell at favorable prices, and economic changes or issuer creditworthiness can impact their value.
Commodities Risk: The value of commodities investments will generally be affected by overall market movements and factors specific to a particular industry or commodity including weather, embargoes, tariffs, or health, political, international and regulatory developments.
A basis point is one hundredth of one percentage point.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
This material may contain forward‑looking information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass.
This material is for informational purposes and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or adopt any investment strategy.
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