Macro Overview
U.S. equity markets experienced a sharp divergence on Tuesday as a rotation out of mega-cap technology weighed on major indices despite a resilient showing in value and small-cap segments. The Large Cap S&P 500 (IVV) fell 0.85%, largely dragged down by “AI-bubble” concerns and disappointing software earnings, while broader market participation remained healthy with nearly 61% of constituents trading above their 50-day SMA. Developed Markets (EFA) and Emerging Markets (EEM) managed modest gains of 0.05% and 0.54% respectively, outperforming domestic large caps. Within fixed income, long-term treasuries (SPTL) saw strength as yields retreated slightly, while the commodity complex was dominated by a significant 6% surge in precious metals (DBP) as safe-haven demand accelerated.
U.S. Size & Style
The style box performance highlighted a distinct “risk-off” move within growth equities, as Large Growth (IVW) tumbled 1.62%, leaving it as the only style segment currently trading below its 50-day moving average (-1.14%). Conversely, Small Value (IJS) and Mid Value (IJJ) led the day with gains of 0.17% and 0.47%, benefiting from the rotation into lower-valuation cyclicals. Technically, Small Value (IJS) remains the most extended style, trading 13.70% above its 200-day moving average, while Large Growth (IVW) has seen its RSI compress to a neutral-to-soft 42.96.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Value (IJS) | 0.17% | 6.84% | 11.43% | 7.74% | 14.88% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | 0.47% | 4.02% | 8.69% | 5.19% | 10.27% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | 0.19% | 3.69% | 7.44% | 5.12% | 10.10% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.09% | 5.66% | 9.15% | 6.71% | 11.40% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -0.05% | 3.41% | 6.24% | 5.03% | 9.63% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.33% | 4.51% | 6.87% | 5.62% | 8.10% |
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.05% | 2.90% | 5.50% | 3.23% | 14.06% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -0.85% | 0.93% | 1.21% | 1.11% | 16.78% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -1.62% | -0.87% | -2.38% | -0.80% | 18.87% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) dominated the sector leaderboard, rising 3.24% and 2.11% respectively, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked a rally in oil. Energy is now deeply overbought with an RSI of 73.61, while showing 100% breadth above its 200-day SMA. At the opposite end, Technology (XLK) fell 2.19% following soft guidance from major software and fintech components. The Technology sector is now the most technically damaged from a price-action standpoint, trading 6.57% below its 52-week high and 2.04% below its 50-day moving average.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | 3.24% | 13.19% | 18.23% | 15.57% | 21.10% |
| Materials (XLB) | 2.11% | 9.93% | 19.71% | 11.80% | 16.34% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | 1.62% | 10.53% | 14.38% | 10.54% | 11.26% |
| Utilities (XLU) | 1.45% | 0.14% | -2.27% | 1.29% | 13.58% |
| Industrials (XLI) | 0.84% | 6.94% | 9.79% | 8.91% | 25.01% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.37% | 1.06% | 1.04% | 1.14% | 2.06% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.80% | 2.23% | 0.11% | 1.32% | 6.52% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -0.85% | 0.93% | 1.20% | 1.12% | 16.70% |
| Financial (XLF) | -0.93% | -2.55% | 3.00% | -2.26% | 5.87% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -1.02% | -0.91% | 7.13% | -0.45% | 6.35% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -1.61% | 0.72% | 3.99% | 0.02% | 16.14% |
| Technology (XLK) | -2.19% | -1.54% | -5.74% | -1.31% | 25.56% |
Global Thematic
Thematic performance was split between a massive rally in mining-linked assets and a collapse in cloud-based technology. Silver Miners (SLVR) and Junior Silver Miners (SILJ) surged over 7%, driven by a significant bounce in underlying metal prices following recent volatility. Meanwhile, the Cloud Computing (WCLD) and FinTech (FINX) themes each plunged over 6% as software-as-a-service (SaaS) valuations faced intense scrutiny amid a shifting interest rate outlook.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % |
|---|---|
| Daily Leaders | |
| Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver (SLVR) | 7.42% |
| Amplify Junior Silver Miners (SILJ) | 7.01% |
| Sprott Copper Miners (COPP) | 6.94% |
| iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners (SLVP) | 6.69% |
| Sprott Junior Uranium Miners (URNJ) | 6.64% |
| Daily Laggards | |
| First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy (CRPT) | -6.49% |
| WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) | -6.48% |
| VanEck Alternative Asset Manager (GPZ) | -6.10% |
| Global X FinTech (FINX) | -6.08% |
| Global X Cloud Computing (CLOU) | -5.62% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
International markets were buoyed by a substantial rally in South Korea (EWY), which rose 2.80% as defense and industrial exports fueled bullish sentiment; South Korea is now the most overextended country globally, trading 51.35% above its 200-day SMA. Mexico (EWW) and Brazil (EWZ) also saw significant gains of 4.41% and 1.58% respectively as regional metal and energy prices improved. In contrast, China (MCHI) and the Netherlands (EWN) were primary laggards, with the latter weighed down by its high concentration in semiconductor-related capital equipment.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets | |||||
| South Korea (EWY) | 2.80% | 21.62% | 26.16% | 27.87% | 138.20% |
| Japan (EWJ) | 0.92% | 6.58% | 7.56% | 7.36% | 34.04% |
| Australia (EWA) | 0.61% | 6.23% | 6.57% | 7.37% | 18.57% |
| Canada (EWC) | 0.53% | 1.20% | 9.20% | 1.69% | 37.26% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | 0.52% | 6.86% | 9.67% | 9.98% | 51.09% |
| Germany (EWG) | 0.07% | 2.23% | 6.36% | 2.38% | 30.31% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | 0.05% | 4.54% | 9.27% | 5.64% | 34.18% |
| France (EWQ) | 0.02% | 0.84% | 4.20% | 1.56% | 23.74% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.15% | 4.52% | 11.38% | 5.66% | 37.02% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.58% | 2.57% | 12.28% | 3.22% | 28.08% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -1.39% | 5.56% | 9.53% | 8.54% | 42.67% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Mexico (EWW) | 4.41% | 13.06% | 21.23% | 13.60% | 62.84% |
| South Africa (EZA) | 1.79% | 7.44% | 23.37% | 8.37% | 81.87% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | 1.58% | 18.14% | 25.02% | 19.74% | 58.09% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | 1.03% | -6.49% | -3.74% | -5.94% | 0.27% |
| Emerging (EEM) | 0.54% | 5.97% | 8.64% | 8.94% | 43.92% |
| Thailand (THD) | 0.49% | 5.69% | 6.42% | 6.12% | 14.46% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | 0.34% | 7.29% | 14.69% | 7.53% | 30.60% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -0.16% | 6.27% | 7.63% | 8.34% | 41.15% |
| India (INDA) | -0.24% | -2.58% | -2.01% | -1.67% | 4.42% |
| China (MCHI) | -0.88% | -1.88% | -2.72% | 1.66% | 29.83% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income markets showed localized strength in long-duration assets and international treasuries as market participants reassessed global policy paths. International Local Treasuries (IGOV) led the complex with a 0.38% gain, while Emerging Markets Local Currency (EMLC) outperformed its USD-denominated peers. Credit-sensitive segments faced headwinds, with Preferred Stock (PFF) and Bank Loans (BKLN) each falling as equity volatility and technical shifts in the leveraged loan market pressured performance.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | 0.12% | 0.26% | -0.78% | 0.07% | 5.43% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | 0.11% | 0.60% | 1.87% | 0.71% | 9.26% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.91% | 0.12% | 5.74% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | 0.02% | 0.23% | 0.72% | 0.20% | 6.95% |
| Taxable Core (AGG) | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.60% | 0.14% | 6.70% |
| Government | |||||
| Government Long (SPTL) | 0.23% | 0.01% | -1.65% | -0.18% | 3.97% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | 0.16% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.42% | 5.52% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.00% | 0.27% | 0.92% | 0.31% | 4.08% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.40% | -0.16% | 6.62% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.89% | 0.11% | 4.94% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Convertible (CWB) | 0.03% | 3.74% | 1.03% | 5.31% | 19.54% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | 0.02% | 0.47% | 1.22% | 0.38% | 8.25% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.03% | 0.18% | 1.18% | 0.21% | 7.52% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | -0.06% | 0.56% | 2.17% | 0.61% | 7.92% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.29% | -0.92% | 0.66% | -0.87% | 5.57% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.38% | 0.79% | 2.40% | 1.80% | 6.14% |
| International & EM | |||||
| International Local (IGOV) | 0.38% | 1.88% | 2.21% | 1.73% | 11.67% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | 0.31% | 2.05% | 5.19% | 2.29% | 19.10% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.02% | 0.29% | 1.42% | 0.31% | 12.12% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.04% | 0.44% | -0.20% | 0.42% | 2.72% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Municipal Long (MLN) | 0.11% | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.32% | 2.53% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | 0.01% | 0.56% | 1.44% | 0.59% | 3.76% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | -0.03% | 0.62% | 1.34% | 0.75% | 4.40% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | -0.04% | 0.01% | 1.20% | 0.09% | 2.61% |
Commodities
Commodities indices surged on Tuesday, led by a violent upside move in Precious Metals (DBP), which climbed over 6%. Gold (GLD) and Silver (SLV) futures both rebounded sharply from recent lows as traders sought safety amidst Middle East drone interceptions and a softening U.S. dollar. Energy (DBE) and Gasoline (UGA) also posted multi-percentage point gains as supply-side risks re-entered the global narrative.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | 2.87% | 9.34% | 11.69% | 9.52% | 21.00% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Sugar (CANE) | 2.50% | -1.46% | 0.21% | -3.23% | -17.53% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | 0.59% | 1.97% | -5.20% | 1.78% | -0.80% |
| Corn (CORN) | 0.52% | -1.47% | -3.34% | -2.03% | -13.11% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | 0.49% | 3.35% | -4.53% | 3.51% | -17.32% |
| Broad-based (DBA) | 0.39% | 0.74% | -0.92% | 0.90% | -3.50% |
| Energy | |||||
| Gasoline (UGA) | 3.63% | 11.23% | 2.65% | 10.38% | 4.13% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | 2.84% | 12.34% | 6.50% | 12.02% | -0.45% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | 2.69% | 13.70% | 8.26% | 13.42% | 3.41% |
| Broad-based (DBE) | 2.43% | 11.58% | 4.71% | 11.14% | 4.82% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | 2.20% | 7.63% | -5.67% | 5.87% | -26.42% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Copper (CPER) | 4.46% | 7.15% | 19.82% | 7.21% | 38.00% |
| Broad-based (DBB) | 2.59% | 4.95% | 13.16% | 5.27% | 31.10% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Gold (GLD) | 6.36% | 14.06% | 23.19% | 14.63% | 74.77% |
| Silver (SLV) | 6.24% | 17.05% | 75.87% | 19.47% | 168.43% |
| Broad-based (DBP) | 6.02% | 13.77% | 31.56% | 14.93% | 85.21% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | 4.08% | 4.16% | 42.44% | 8.67% | 129.41% |
| Palladium (PALL) | 2.29% | 7.21% | 21.93% | 9.86% | 72.63% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets faced broad selling pressure as risk appetite evaporated in the wake of technology weakness. Solana (SOLZ) was the day’s worst performer, falling 2.65%, followed closely by Multi-Coin composites (NCIQ) and Bitcoin (IBIT). Ethereum (ETHA) showed relative resilience but still ended the day 0.91% lower. Sentiment remains fragile as Bitcoin has retraced nearly 28.5% over the last three months, currently trading significantly below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | -2.65% | -23.19% | -39.31% | -18.97% | N/A |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -2.17% | -17.22% | -30.10% | -14.42% | N/A |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -2.08% | -15.00% | -28.47% | -12.79% | -24.80% |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -0.91% | -26.46% | -35.99% | -22.69% | -15.54% |
| XRP | 0.00% | -18.60% | N/A | -11.94% | N/A |
What to Watch Today
Investors are closely monitoring the fallout from a string of software earnings misses, which have sparked fears of a broader slowdown in AI-related infrastructure spend. While a partial government shutdown has officially delayed the release of January’s job creation and unemployment data until federal funding resumes, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December remains a key focal point for assessing labor market tightness. Furthermore, geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to hold a massive premium on energy and precious metal prices, with any further escalation likely to drive additional safe-haven rotation. Market participants are also keeping a wary eye on the 10-year Treasury yield, which touched a multi-month high today before slightly paring gains.
