Macro Overview
U.S. equity markets experienced a volatile session as the S&P 500 (IVV) briefly touched the psychologically significant 7,000 level before retreating under the weight of a 10% slide in Microsoft following its cloud growth guidance. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% was largely expected, though Chair Powell’s “hawkish hold” commentary cooled expectations for an imminent spring cut, maintaining pressure on high-duration assets. While Large Cap Growth (IVW) underperformed, Small Cap Value (IJS) emerged as a significant outlier, gaining 0.81% as breadth improved in cyclical pockets. Commodities (DJP) surged 1.48% on the back of intensifying U.S.-Iran tensions, while Fixed Income (AGG) remained flat as the 10-year Treasury yield consolidated near 4.23%.
U.S. Size & Style
Size and style performance reflected a clear “Value over Growth” rotation on the day, with Small Cap Value (IJS) leading the pack with a 0.81% daily gain. In contrast, Large Cap Growth (IVW) lagged significantly, dropping 0.53% as investors repriced the cost of AI infrastructure spending. From a technical perspective, the Small Cap segment shows the most relative strength with (IJS) trading 13.24% above its 200-day SMA, while Large Cap (IVV) remains technically extended but still within 0.23% of its 52-week high with an RSI of 56.6.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Value (IJS) | 0.81% | 5.40% | 9.70% | 6.85% | 11.83% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | 0.63% | 4.35% | 8.05% | 6.39% | 9.71% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | 0.45% | 3.27% | 7.54% | 4.52% | 8.17% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | 0.42% | 3.31% | 6.20% | 5.82% | 7.62% |
| Large Value (IVE) | 0.15% | 1.35% | 3.93% | 2.17% | 11.80% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | -0.22% | 3.54% | 6.77% | 5.00% | 8.90% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -0.23% | 0.89% | 1.28% | 1.77% | 16.72% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -0.53% | 0.47% | -0.95% | 1.37% | 20.93% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -0.74% | 3.75% | 6.01% | 5.39% | 9.43% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Communication Services (XLC) was the day’s primary leader, gaining 2.60% after Meta’s strong results offset the broader tech weakness. Energy (XLE) followed with a 0.92% gain, reaching overbought territory with an RSI of 76.3 and a remarkable 94.7% of its constituents trading above their 200-day SMA. Technology (XLK) was the clear laggard, sinking 1.58% as software sub-sectors pulled back sharply, while Health Care (XLV) continued to struggle with momentum, sitting 3.66% below its 52-week high with a weak RSI of 41.5.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services (XLC) | 2.60% | 1.61% | 3.34% | 1.76% | 19.01% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | 1.27% | 1.82% | 2.88% | 2.53% | 4.42% |
| Financial (XLF) | 1.06% | -3.20% | 3.16% | -2.23% | 5.86% |
| Industrials (XLI) | 1.05% | 5.73% | 7.31% | 6.92% | 22.01% |
| Energy (XLE) | 0.92% | 13.20% | 15.75% | 12.97% | 16.39% |
| Materials (XLB) | 0.10% | 9.31% | 15.08% | 10.25% | 15.09% |
| Utilities (XLU) | 0.00% | 1.10% | -3.10% | 1.50% | 16.13% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.23% | 4.92% | 8.11% | 5.73% | 6.87% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.32% | -1.28% | 7.29% | -0.63% | 7.45% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.48% | 0.28% | 1.55% | 1.49% | 5.85% |
| Technology (XLK) | -1.58% | 0.69% | -3.27% | 2.01% | 27.53% |
Global Thematic
Thematic performance was dominated by a surge in resource-related funds, with Copper Miners (COPX) gaining 2.45% as metal prices surged amid dollar weakness and global supply uncertainty. Green Infrastructure (GRID) also showed resilience with a 1.43% rise. Conversely, high-beta digital assets and cloud sectors faced significant headwinds; the Crypto Industry fund (CRPT) cratered 8.09%, while Cloud Computing (WCLD) sank 5.30% following the underwhelming software guidance from sector giants.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Thematic Leaders | |
| Copper Miners (COPP) | 3.52% |
| Copper Miners (COPX) | 2.45% |
| American Reshoring (RSHO) | 2.29% |
| Copper and Metals (ICOP) | 1.83% |
| Electrification (VOLT) | 1.49% |
| Thematic Laggards | |
| Crypto Industry (CRPT) | -8.09% |
| Digital Transformation (DAPP) | -5.95% |
| Blockchain (BKCH) | -5.55% |
| Cloud Computing (WCLD) | -5.30% |
| Bitcoin Mining (WGMI) | -5.12% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
International markets showed broad strength, led by Switzerland (EWL) which surged 1.92% as the franc attracted safe-haven flows. Japan (EWJ) also impressed with a 1.03% gain, continuing its technical breakout to new 52-week highs. Emerging Markets (EEM) fell slightly on the day (-0.51%) but remains technically robust, trading 17.49% above its 200-day SMA. Mexico (EWW) is currently in highly overbought territory with an RSI of 82.25, while Indonesia (EIDO) bounced 1.85% despite remaining oversold at an RSI of 29.5.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets | |||||
| Switzerland (EWL) | 1.92% | 3.10% | 11.79% | 3.77% | 27.86% |
| Japan (EWJ) | 1.03% | 6.17% | 7.35% | 6.63% | 32.26% |
| Australia (EWA) | 0.89% | 7.33% | 7.07% | 8.51% | 19.11% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | 0.72% | 10.53% | 11.62% | 11.62% | 52.14% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | 0.68% | 11.37% | 11.03% | 11.31% | 45.42% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | 0.67% | 5.62% | 8.85% | 5.89% | 33.12% |
| France (EWQ) | 0.64% | 1.84% | 2.66% | 1.84% | 21.94% |
| U.K. (EWU) | 0.43% | 5.50% | 10.53% | 5.59% | 36.97% |
| Canada (EWC) | 0.32% | 4.05% | 12.39% | 4.82% | 38.39% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -0.84% | 26.11% | 31.41% | 28.06% | 133.98% |
| Germany (EWG) | -1.30% | 2.19% | 5.26% | 2.21% | 27.11% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Indonesia (EIDO) | 1.85% | -5.74% | -3.11% | -5.99% | -1.42% |
| China (MCHI) | 0.50% | 6.39% | -0.72% | 6.93% | 36.07% |
| India (INDA) | 0.23% | -3.48% | -5.49% | -4.51% | 2.16% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -0.36% | 11.26% | 18.60% | 13.15% | 27.80% |
| Emerging (EEM) | -0.51% | 10.57% | 9.46% | 10.47% | 45.67% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.55% | 21.73% | 26.65% | 19.99% | 62.98% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -0.70% | 16.29% | 29.66% | 15.67% | 94.47% |
| Thailand (THD) | -1.46% | 8.19% | 6.12% | 7.17% | 12.50% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -1.91% | 10.26% | 8.81% | 9.92% | 43.01% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -1.91% | 6.32% | 14.76% | 6.98% | 63.63% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income markets remained largely stable as duration-sensitive assets like Long-Term Treasuries (SPTL) edged up just 0.04% despite the Fed’s pause. International bonds provided the day’s leadership, with Local International (IGOV) and USD-Hedged (BNDX) rising 0.26% and 0.33% respectively. Credit markets showed signs of fatigue as Preferred Stock (PFF) fell 0.38% and Convertible bonds (CWB) dropped 0.95% on the technical sell-off in high-growth equities.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Multisector (PYLD) | 0.11% | 0.52% | 1.61% | 0.71% | 9.46% |
| Short-Term (BSV) | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.88% | 0.10% | 5.75% |
| Core (AGG) | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.35% | 0.27% | 6.87% |
| Core Enhanced (IUSB) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.42% | 0.30% | 7.11% |
| Long-Term (BLV) | 0.00% | -0.23% | -1.77% | 0.49% | 6.12% |
| Government | |||||
| Intermediate (SPTI) | 0.10% | -0.31% | 0.43% | -0.10% | 6.77% |
| Short-Term (SPTS) | 0.07% | 0.12% | 0.97% | 0.10% | 4.94% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | 0.07% | 0.34% | 0.10% | 0.55% | 6.10% |
| Long-Term (SPTL) | 0.04% | -0.49% | -2.07% | 0.30% | 4.96% |
| Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.02% | 0.30% | 0.92% | 0.27% | 4.11% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | 0.10% | 0.36% | 1.29% | 0.60% | 8.42% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.90% | 0.24% | 7.57% |
| High Yield (HYG) | -0.01% | 0.50% | 1.56% | 0.50% | 7.66% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.34% | -0.68% | 0.76% | -0.78% | 5.58% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.38% | 2.23% | 1.89% | 2.36% | 5.76% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.95% | 5.38% | 1.74% | 6.30% | 20.56% |
| International & EM | |||||
| International USD (BNDX) | 0.33% | 0.62% | 0.20% | 0.72% | 3.76% |
| International Local (IGOV) | 0.26% | 2.27% | 2.35% | 2.83% | 13.26% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.01% | 0.08% | 1.30% | 0.41% | 12.50% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | 0.00% | 3.03% | 5.45% | 2.71% | 19.14% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Long-Term (MLN) | 0.06% | -0.37% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 2.76% |
| Short-Term (SUB) | -0.03% | 0.56% | 1.40% | 0.50% | 3.84% |
| Intermediate (MUB) | -0.10% | 0.62% | 1.08% | 0.55% | 4.37% |
| High Yield (HYD) | -0.18% | 0.11% | 1.13% | 0.06% | 3.33% |
Commodities
Commodities were the standout performer on the day, with Broad-based Energy (DBE) and WTI Crude Oil (USO) both jumping over 3% as geopolitical risk premia returned to the market. Industrial metals also rallied strongly, with Copper (CPER) spiking 5.25%. While Gold (GLD) held onto modest gains (+0.27%), other precious metals like Platinum (PPLT) pullled back sharply as safe-haven demand shifted more toward hard energy assets.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Composite (DJP) | 1.48% | 15.41% | 21.43% | 16.49% | 30.18% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Wheat (WEAT) | 1.20% | 4.60% | -0.56% | 5.81% | -15.14% |
| Corn (CORN) | 0.40% | -1.80% | -2.33% | -1.30% | -13.28% |
| Broad-based (DBA) | -0.04% | 0.86% | 1.82% | 1.37% | -4.02% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -0.09% | 1.13% | -1.62% | 2.61% | -0.09% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -0.10% | -3.38% | 2.75% | -2.05% | -17.02% |
| Energy | |||||
| Natural Gas (UNG) | 3.65% | 15.40% | 23.34% | 22.84% | -10.14% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | 3.29% | 13.69% | 10.22% | 14.43% | 1.75% |
| Broad-based (DBE) | 3.25% | 13.60% | 9.76% | 14.74% | 9.08% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | 3.11% | 15.17% | 11.78% | 15.78% | 5.60% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Copper (CPER) | 5.25% | 13.25% | 20.22% | 10.73% | 43.90% |
| Broad-based (DBB) | 2.16% | 11.65% | 18.26% | 9.42% | 36.62% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Gold (GLD) | 0.27% | 24.41% | 36.61% | 25.13% | 95.08% |
| Silver (SLV) | -0.03% | 59.93% | 144.21% | 63.88% | 277.04% |
| Broad-based (DBP) | -0.35% | 30.77% | 53.78% | 32.23% | 117.80% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -1.85% | 20.79% | 42.66% | 25.51% | 107.00% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -2.46% | 24.04% | 64.64% | 28.27% | 174.74% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets faced a brutal session as risk-off sentiment and competition from surging commodities triggered a sharp correction. Bitcoin (IBIT) fell 5.76%, sliding below the $90,000 level, while Ethereum (ETHA) led the declines with a 7.17% drop. Despite the short-term pain, both major tokens remain significantly positive over a 12-month period, though Solana (SOLZ) shows signs of severe technical stress, dropping over 40% in the last quarter as speculative capital rotates out of the ecosystem.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -7.17% | -4.48% | -28.49% | -5.88% | -11.27% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | -7.03% | -5.35% | -40.55% | -6.39% | – |
| XRP (XRP) | -6.10% | -2.65% | – | -1.71% | – |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -5.89% | -3.43% | -25.84% | -3.99% | – |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -5.76% | -3.60% | -24.14% | -4.13% | -19.78% |
What to Watch Today
The primary focus for markets now shifts to Apple’s earnings release and its guidance on iPhone sales and AI integration, which will be critical in determining if the recent tech sell-off consolidates or deepens. Investors will also be parsing the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims and nonfarm productivity data to assess the labor market’s resilience following Chair Powell’s emphasis on a data-dependent path. Geopolitical headlines regarding the U.S. deployment to the Middle East will continue to act as a tailwind for energy prices and a potential headwind for broader risk appetite.
