Small Caps Roar Back as Fed Speak Sparks Relief Rally

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Macro Overview

Equity markets staged a broad relief rally on Friday, with the S&P 500 (IVV) gaining +0.99% to close a volatile week on a high note. Sentiment shifted positively after New York Fed President John Williams suggested interest rates could be cut in the near term, soothing investor fears regarding inflation and the central bank’s policy path. This dovish commentary sparked renewed demand for risk assets, though technology continued to show relative weakness compared to cyclical sectors.

U.S. Size & Style

Small caps were the standout performers of the session, fueled by the prospect of easing financial conditions. Small Value (IJS) surged +3.25%, significantly outpacing its larger counterparts. The rotation into economically sensitive areas was evident across the board, with Value styles beating Growth across all market capitalizations. Large Growth (IVW) lagged the pack, rising +0.67%, as investors took profits in tech heavyweights to deploy capital into beaten-down smaller companies.

Name (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) +1.42% -1.66% -1.36% +2.96% +9.34% +3.77%
Large Cap (IVV) +0.99% -1.93% -1.80% +4.00% +13.55% +12.46%
Large Growth (IVW) +0.67% -2.11% -2.22% +4.88% +17.10% +19.49%
Mid Value (IJJ) +2.72% -0.17% -2.18% +0.86% +3.13% -1.35%
Mid Cap (IJH) +2.41% -0.69% -2.67% +0.81% +3.26% -1.70%
Mid Growth (IJK) +2.15% -1.08% -2.94% +0.72% +3.23% -2.26%
Small Value (IJS) +3.25% -1.87% -2.94% +3.19% +0.82% -3.26%
Small Cap (IJR) +3.15% -1.09% -3.51% +1.66% +1.37% -4.13%
Small Growth (IJT) +3.14% -0.23% -3.96% +0.32% +2.00% -5.16%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

Participation was broad-based with all 11 GICS sectors finishing in the green. Cyclicals led the charge, with Materials (XLB) gaining +2.24%, supported by strength in underlying industries like Homebuilders and Transportation. Health Care (XLV) also outperformed, driven by a sharp rally in medical device makers. While Technology (XLK) closed positive, it was the second-worst performer on the day, highlighting the market’s rotation away from mega-cap tech.

Sector (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Materials (XLB) +2.24% -0.48% -2.53% -4.02% +4.12% -5.88%
Health Care (XLV) +2.11% +1.83% +6.53% +13.34% +13.87% +9.25%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +1.96% -2.33% -5.72% -0.15% +1.17% +5.77%
Communication Services (XLC) +1.76% +0.51% -4.07% +2.33% +16.61% +16.57%
Real Estate (XLRE) +1.31% -0.12% -3.42% -1.13% +2.88% -3.36%
Industrials (XLI) +1.22% -1.57% -3.39% -0.29% +14.72% +7.98%
Financial (XLF) +1.10% -1.49% -2.01% -1.63% +8.01% +4.49%
Consumer Staples (XLP) +1.09% +0.83% -1.75% -4.89% +0.99% -1.35%
Energy (XLE) +0.63% -2.83% +3.15% +4.40% +6.98% -4.86%
Technology (XLK) +0.39% -5.19% -5.25% +5.65% +18.04% +17.74%
Utilities (XLU) +0.15% -0.69% -2.71% +3.69% +18.88% +10.79%

Global Thematic

Thematic performance showed massive divergence, with Cannabis-related funds posting double-digit gains. AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) skyrocketed nearly 12%, while other speculative themes like Genomics and Home Construction also outperformed. Conversely, the crypto-equity complex remained under pressure, dragging down blockchain and digital economy funds.

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

International developed markets rallied in lockstep with the U.S., led by strong gains in Japan (EWJ), which rose +2.14%. European markets were also firmly positive, with Switzerland (EWL) and the U.K. (EWU) posting gains above 1.7%. Hong Kong (EWH) underperformed relative to the group, adding just +0.28%.

Country (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) +1.55% -2.74% -2.05% +0.87% +24.65% +23.65%
Australia (EWA) +1.52% -2.39% -6.57% -5.70% +7.78% -0.35%
Canada (EWC) +1.04% -0.90% +0.88% +6.66% +25.97% +19.81%
France (EWQ) +1.63% -2.56% -2.87% +0.32% +24.52% +25.52%
Germany (EWG) +1.31% -3.57% -5.49% -6.37% +25.87% +28.08%
Hong Kong (EWH) +0.28% -4.70% +1.83% +2.50% +33.03% +31.20%
Japan (EWJ) +2.14% -3.32% -1.67% +3.16% +21.98% +23.21%
Netherlands (EWN) +0.72% -3.80% -4.16% +5.35% +27.37% +28.10%
South Korea (EWY) +0.78% -5.22% +0.65% +25.27% +75.32% +57.53%
Switzerland (EWL) +1.80% -1.49% -0.74% +3.19% +25.69% +22.42%
U.K. (EWU) +1.74% -1.66% +0.24% +0.96% +26.61% +25.38%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets were mixed, reflecting diverse local drivers. Malaysia (EWM) was a bright spot, rising +0.92%, while Thailand (THD) fell -1.01%. India (INDA) also struggled, dropping nearly 1% on the session.

Country (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Emerging (EEM) -0.02% -3.38% -2.23% +6.97% +28.19% +25.99%
Brazil (EWZ) +0.41% -3.47% +6.98% +15.80% +44.88% +26.66%
China (MCHI) +0.07% -4.06% -3.97% +1.53% +31.27% +31.70%
India (INDA) -0.93% -0.75% -0.50% +1.19% +2.98% +2.66%
Indonesia (EIDO) +0.22% -0.05% +1.10% -0.38% +2.08% -3.52%
Malaysia (EWM) +0.92% -0.60% +2.14% +4.37% +9.45% +12.65%
Mexico (EWW) +0.03% -1.76% +1.49% +7.29% +43.61% +38.48%
South Africa (EZA) -0.11% -3.18% +2.51% +13.97% +56.59% +43.74%
Taiwan (EWT) +0.19% -5.17% -6.05% +5.51% +19.40% +18.76%
Thailand (THD) -1.01% -1.35% -2.00% +1.17% -2.05% -5.10%

Fixed Income

Treasury yields cooled, providing a tailwind for fixed income assets. Preferred Stock (PFF) led gains, rising +0.53%, followed by Taxable High Yield (HYG) which added +0.34%. The move reflected a “risk-on” tone within credit markets, even as emerging market debt lagged.

Category (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Taxable Core (AGG) +0.24% +0.44% -0.46% +2.61% +7.09% +6.85%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) +0.24% +0.43% -0.31% +2.60% +7.22% +7.05%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) +0.19% +0.11% -0.15% +2.54% +8.40% +8.90%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) +0.02% +0.07% +0.35% +1.03% +3.73% +4.25%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) +0.16% +0.36% +0.16% +1.61% +5.61% +6.20%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) +0.30% +0.66% -2.05% +3.98% +7.32% +5.38%
Government Short (SPTS) +0.14% +0.31% +0.23% +1.41% +4.63% +5.45%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) +0.21% +0.59% +0.04% +2.29% +7.53% +7.51%
Government Long (SPTL) +0.19% +0.63% -1.98% +4.44% +6.70% +4.53%
Inflation Protected (TIP) +0.23% +0.24% -0.57% +1.66% +7.20% +6.41%
Corporate (SPIB) +0.24% +0.44% -0.04% +2.07% +7.38% +7.60%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) +0.34% +0.19% +0.03% +1.68% +7.24% +7.12%
Bank Loans (BKLN) +0.10% -0.10% +0.77% +1.62% +5.39% +5.84%
Preferred Stock (PFF) +0.53% -1.34% -3.14% -1.68% +2.40% -0.31%
Convertible (CWB) +0.29% -1.99% -5.67% +2.78% +13.00% +9.83%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) +0.32% +0.44% -0.30% +3.23% +7.92% +7.76%
International USD (BNDX) +0.20% +0.20% -0.42% +1.39% +3.21% +3.71%
International (IGOV) +0.34% -1.00% -1.81% -0.26% +8.69% +7.05%
Emerging USD (EMB) +0.27% +0.19% +0.30% +4.12% +12.81% +11.75%
Emerging (EMLC) -0.24% -0.51% +0.47% +2.64% +15.90% +14.16%
Municipal Short (SUB) +0.03% +0.09% +0.29% +0.34% +3.12% +3.41%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) +0.04% +0.18% -0.13% +3.95% +3.27% +2.84%
Municipal Long (MLN) -0.11% -0.34% -0.70% +5.83% +1.29% +1.40%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) +0.12% +0.59% +0.14% +4.97% +1.90% +1.80%

Commodities

Commodities were mixed with Natural Gas (UNG) bucking the trend to rise +1.60%. Energy otherwise struggled, as Gasoline (UGA) and WTI Crude Oil (USO) both fell more than 1%. Precious metals also saw red, with Silver (SLV) dropping over 1%.

Commodity (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) -0.22% -1.48% +1.84% +8.12% +14.05% +14.34%
Energy (DBE) -1.35% -3.13% +3.74% -0.44% +1.42% +2.61%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) -1.21% -2.91% +1.51% -6.52% -8.27% -5.33%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) -1.11% -2.99% +2.11% -5.28% -4.77% -3.55%
Natural Gas (UNG) +1.60% +0.62% +11.41% +18.15% -12.85% -3.30%
Gasoline (UGA) -1.53% -6.20% +6.26% +1.50% +3.43% +3.67%
Precious Metals (DBP) -0.52% -1.00% -0.51% +22.08% +53.53% +50.99%
Gold (GLD) -0.15% -0.45% -0.79% +21.80% +54.57% +51.74%
Silver (SLV) -1.05% -1.44% +3.45% +30.89% +72.05% +61.55%
Platinum (PPLT) +0.44% -1.79% -1.73% +11.50% +66.08% +56.15%
Palladium (PALL) -0.46% -2.50% -2.91% +23.10% +49.31% +32.10%
Industrial Metals (DBB) +0.38% -1.25% +1.62% +9.28% +13.05% +11.21%
Copper (CPER) +0.97% -0.80% +1.74% +11.88% +23.49% +19.96%
Agriculture (DBA) -0.23% -0.80% -3.54% -5.13% -2.67% +2.41%
Corn (CORN) 0.00% -1.68% +0.80% +1.68% -6.23% -2.63%
Soybeans (SOYB) +0.17% +0.09% +6.18% +4.80% +8.85% +11.23%
Wheat (WEAT) 0.00% -0.48% +3.97% -0.95% -13.07% -15.69%
Sugar (CANE) +0.48% -0.15% -2.31% -13.76% -16.93% -24.75%

Cryptocurrency

The crypto complex continued to face headwinds, with major assets sliding lower. Solana (SOLZ) was the day’s laggard, dropping nearly 5%, while Bitcoin (IBIT) shed roughly 2% as risk appetite for digital assets remained subdued despite the broader equity rally.

Asset (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) -4.84% -8.99% -35.42% -32.39%
Ethereum (ETHA) -3.32% -12.62% -31.64% -35.19% -18.15% -18.63%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -2.49% -10.56% -25.91% -27.71%
Bitcoin (IBIT) -2.02% -10.29% -24.44% -24.68% -9.58% -14.19%

What to Watch Today

Investors will be watching the release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index today for fresh insights into regional economic activity. Following last week’s dovish signals from Fed officials, any signs of further cooling in the manufacturing sector could reinforce expectations for a near-term rate cut. Additionally, the 2-Year Note Auction will be closely monitored to gauge demand for government debt in the current rate environment.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.