Macro Overview
Markets closed January 30 with a clear rotation toward value and defensive positioning as broad indices faced selling pressure. The U.S. Large Cap Blend (IVV) slipped -0.30%, while growth-oriented segments faced sharper declines, contrasted by a slight gain in Large Value (IVE). Internationally, the Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) fell -0.93% and Emerging Markets (EEM) dropped -2.22%, though South Korea remained a long-term technical outlier with a 1-year return exceeding 126%. Fixed income showed mixed results as long-term yields weighed on the Government Long (SPTL) segment, and commodities were roiled by a massive -14.71% plunge in Precious Metals (DBP).
U.S. Size & Style
Domestic markets exhibited a significant value bias during Friday’s session, with Large Value (IVE) being the only style box to finish in positive territory (+0.26%). Technical indicators show the broader market remains generally healthy, with Large Cap (IVV) maintaining a 64% breadth of constituents above their 50-day moving average, even as Mid Growth (IJK) lagged significantly with a -1.37% daily drop. Small Value (IJS) currently displays the strongest technical cushion relative to its long-term trend, trading 12.7% above its 200-day moving average.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value (IVE) | 0.26% | 1.72% | 4.77% | 2.44% | 11.94% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -0.30% | 0.74% | 2.09% | 1.47% | 15.80% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.34% | 5.52% | 10.64% | 6.49% | 10.50% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -0.49% | 3.03% | 8.23% | 4.00% | 6.41% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.65% | 4.39% | 8.52% | 5.70% | 7.97% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -0.85% | -0.22% | -0.30% | 0.51% | 18.88% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | -0.91% | 2.95% | 6.95% | 4.05% | 6.73% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -1.02% | 3.20% | 6.39% | 4.74% | 5.38% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -1.37% | 2.79% | 5.74% | 3.94% | 6.73% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
The U.S. Sector landscape was a study in defensive outperformance as Consumer Staples (XLP) surged 1.68%. Energy (XLE) followed closely with a 1.07% gain, fueled by its overbought status (RSI: 78.40) and 100% breadth above its 200-day moving average. Conversely, the Technology (XLK) sector dragged heavily on the index, falling -2.04% as investors retreated from growth; this move has pushed Technology below its 50-day SMA, though it remains up 24.71% over the trailing year.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | 1.68% | 6.86% | 10.04% | 7.51% | 7.60% |
| Energy (XLE) | 1.07% | 13.55% | 17.68% | 14.18% | 17.03% |
| Health Care (XLV) | 0.60% | -0.60% | 7.69% | -0.04% | 6.86% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | 0.24% | 1.51% | 5.38% | 2.00% | 19.18% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | 0.15% | 1.74% | 2.45% | 2.68% | 3.21% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.02% | 0.67% | 3.88% | 1.47% | 4.80% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.18% | 0.68% | -2.87% | 1.31% | 13.55% |
| Financial (XLF) | -0.21% | -3.15% | 2.67% | -2.43% | 4.65% |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.25% | 5.77% | 7.31% | 6.65% | 20.35% |
| Materials (XLB) | -1.46% | 7.74% | 14.94% | 8.64% | 12.35% |
| Technology (XLK) | -2.04% | -1.05% | -4.06% | -0.06% | 24.71% |
Global Thematic
Thematic performance was overwhelmingly negative, led lower by a collapse in precious metals mining. Silver Miners (SIL) plummeted -14.78%, while Gold Miners (GDX) fell -12.76% in sympathy with a massive sell-off in spot metals. Telecommunications (IYZ) stood out as a lone leader, gaining 1.44%, while Clean Energy (PBW) also faced significant headwinds, dropping over 5%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Leaders | |
| Telecommunications (IYZ) | 1.44% |
| Aging Population (AGNG) | 0.00% |
| Global Infrastructure (NFRA) | -0.01% |
| Energy Independence (USAI) | -0.07% |
| Heart & Health (HRTS) | -0.17% |
| Laggards | |
| Silver Miners (SIL) | -14.78% |
| Gold Miners (GDX) | -12.76% |
| Uranium & Nuclear Energy (URA) | -7.32% |
| Crypto Miners (WGMI) | -7.55% |
| Clean Energy (PBW) | -5.06% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
International markets were predominantly lower, though localized trends emerged. In the developed world, Japan (EWJ) showed resilience with only a -0.43% decline, while Canada (EWC) was dragged down -4.02% by exposure to commodity volatility. Emerging Markets were hit harder, led by South Africa (EZA) falling -8.02%. Notably, South Korea (EWY) maintains an extreme RSI of 74.28, indicating it may be entering overbought territory despite its massive long-term outperformance.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed ex-U.S. | |||||
| Japan (EWJ) | -0.43% | 5.85% | 6.92% | 6.17% | 29.75% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.60% | 4.39% | 10.07% | 4.96% | 34.17% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.76% | 0.84% | 5.15% | 1.44% | 25.53% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | -0.93% | 4.46% | 8.31% | 4.90% | 30.45% |
| France (EWQ) | -1.03% | 0.47% | 2.57% | 0.80% | 19.73% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -1.09% | 2.28% | 10.68% | 2.64% | 25.37% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -1.43% | 8.59% | 12.58% | 10.02% | 47.54% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -1.68% | 24.12% | 31.43% | 25.91% | 126.52% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -1.91% | 8.81% | 8.70% | 9.19% | 40.82% |
| Australia (EWA) | -2.36% | 5.07% | 4.97% | 5.96% | 14.86% |
| Canada (EWC) | -4.02% | -0.07% | 8.04% | 0.61% | 31.91% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| India (INDA) | 0.25% | -3.54% | -4.66% | -4.27% | 1.55% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | 0.40% | -5.46% | -2.46% | -5.61% | -0.05% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -0.31% | 5.84% | 14.54% | 6.65% | 26.40% |
| Thailand (THD) | -1.24% | 5.42% | 5.36% | 5.85% | 10.48% |
| Emerging (EEM) | -2.22% | 7.69% | 8.16% | 8.02% | 40.07% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -2.53% | 6.83% | 7.00% | 7.13% | 37.79% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -2.83% | 15.79% | 23.58% | 16.59% | 54.00% |
| China (MCHI) | -2.85% | 3.00% | -1.88% | 3.88% | 29.04% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -4.24% | 8.10% | 14.76% | 8.35% | 55.87% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -8.02% | 5.73% | 19.97% | 6.40% | 75.15% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income assets showed a distinct split based on duration, as intermediate and short-term debt outperformed. Municipal Intermediate (MUB) led the space with a 0.14% gain, while long-duration assets were pressured by rising rates; the Government Long (SPTL) fell -0.41% for the day. Local currency Emerging Market debt (EMLC) also struggled, dropping -0.83%, while credit-sensitive Bank Loans (BKLN) remained relatively resilient with a 0.05% gain.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | 0.05% | 0.09% | 1.00% | 0.15% | 5.69% |
| Taxable Core (AGG) | -0.02% | 0.01% | 0.52% | 0.25% | 6.69% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.57% | 0.24% | 6.88% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | -0.31% | -0.37% | -1.45% | 0.17% | 5.49% |
| Government | |||||
| Government Short (SPTS) | 0.07% | 0.17% | 1.04% | 0.17% | 4.97% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | 0.07% | -0.21% | 0.53% | -0.03% | 6.69% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.02% | 0.31% | 0.94% | 0.30% | 4.13% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.04% | 0.32% | 0.28% | 0.52% | 5.95% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | -0.41% | -0.75% | -2.05% | -0.11% | 4.17% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | 0.11% | 0.51% | 1.86% | 0.61% | 7.57% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | 0.06% | 0.15% | 1.13% | 0.30% | 7.47% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | 0.05% | -0.73% | 0.86% | -0.73% | 5.48% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | 0.00% | 2.03% | 2.57% | 2.36% | 5.13% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.10% | 0.25% | 1.28% | 0.49% | 8.15% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -1.50% | 4.19% | 1.43% | 4.71% | 17.93% |
| International & EM | |||||
| Emerging USD (EMB) | -0.09% | 0.11% | 1.32% | 0.31% | 11.92% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.21% | 0.39% | -0.07% | 0.52% | 3.25% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | -0.83% | 1.86% | 4.82% | 1.86% | 17.75% |
| International Local (IGOV) | -1.00% | 1.53% | 1.63% | 1.80% | 11.65% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | 0.14% | 0.70% | 1.26% | 0.69% | 4.34% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | 0.07% | 0.58% | 1.47% | 0.57% | 3.84% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | 0.06% | -0.03% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 2.42% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | -0.08% | 0.01% | 1.03% | -0.02% | 3.01% |
Commodities
The commodity complex was dominated by extreme volatility in Precious Metals (DBP), which cratered -14.71%. This was primarily driven by a massive -28.54% drop in Silver (SLV) and a -10.27% slide in Gold (GLD). In contrast, Natural Gas (UNG) rocketed 12.22% higher, diverging sharply from the rest of the Energy (DBE) complex. Agricultural commodities remained relatively flat, with broad Agriculture (DBA) slipping -0.81% on the day.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -3.08% | 10.83% | 16.91% | 12.90% | 25.94% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Corn (CORN) | -0.11% | -1.41% | -1.96% | -1.41% | -12.82% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -0.76% | 4.43% | -0.14% | 5.01% | -15.95% |
| Broad-based (DBA) | -0.81% | 0.35% | 1.22% | 0.55% | -4.11% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -0.85% | 0.59% | -3.18% | 1.74% | -0.04% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -3.30% | -4.94% | 0.00% | -5.28% | -19.93% |
| Energy | |||||
| Natural Gas (UNG) | 12.22% | 28.81% | 31.83% | 37.85% | 4.71% |
| Broad-based (DBE) | 1.30% | 14.72% | 11.00% | 16.23% | 10.77% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | 0.93% | 11.01% | 6.75% | 12.38% | 8.17% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | 0.49% | 15.53% | 12.65% | 16.35% | 6.02% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | 0.48% | 14.02% | 10.89% | 14.98% | 2.28% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Broad-based (DBB) | -4.38% | 4.26% | 13.60% | 4.62% | 30.77% |
| Copper (CPER) | -5.89% | 3.35% | 15.39% | 4.20% | 34.08% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Gold (GLD) | -10.27% | 11.55% | 20.21% | 12.27% | 72.43% |
| Broad-based (DBP) | -14.71% | 10.21% | 28.33% | 12.78% | 82.30% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -15.68% | 4.63% | 16.23% | 5.83% | 69.69% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -18.44% | -1.80% | 32.81% | 4.62% | 119.74% |
| Silver (SLV) | -28.54% | 9.37% | 70.14% | 17.11% | 162.67% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets faced a correlated drawdown with broad risk-off sentiment in equities. Ethereum (ETHA) was the significant laggard, falling -4.45% and pushing its 3-month decline to -27.52%. Bitcoin (IBIT) was more resilient but still finished in the red at -0.23%. Solana (SOLZ) stood out as a lone positive mover in the top digital assets, posting a marginal 0.17% gain despite a challenging technical backdrop.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -4.45% | -9.67% | -27.52% | -10.08% | -17.67% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -0.48% | -4.78% | -22.84% | -4.45% | N/A |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -0.23% | -4.70% | -21.37% | -4.35% | -20.48% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | 0.17% | -5.94% | -35.65% | -6.23% | N/A |
What to Watch Today
As markets move into the next trading cycle, the primary focus will remain on the sustainability of the defensive rotation into Consumer Staples and Energy. Investors are closely monitoring whether the extreme volatility in precious metals signals a broader shift in inflation expectations or a localized technical liquidation. Macroeconomic releases concerning labor market stability and consumer sentiment will likely dictate if the current large-cap value outperformance persists or if growth segments find a technical floor near their 50-day moving averages.
