Mega-Cap Drag: How Market Capitalization is Dictating Factor Returns

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The Hidden Driver of Factor Outperformance: Company Size

Let’s be clear upfront: factor investing absolutely matters. However, when you apply a factor screen, you are typically reweighting securities based on those specific characteristics rather than their raw market capitalization. Over the last decade, as mega-cap stocks have relentlessly driven broad market returns, this structural shift away from market-cap weighting has created a massive hurdle for traditional factor strategies.

The core dynamic is straightforward. When the absolute largest companies in the benchmark are the top performers, it becomes next to impossible for any strategy to keep pace—let alone outperform—unless it holds those mega-caps in at least an equal weight to the parent index. But what happens when that decade-long mega-cap dominance takes a breather?

Looking at popular S&P 500 factor ETFs year-to-date, we can see a striking trend. All but two of these factor strategies are currently outperforming the broad-market SPY—in many cases, by a wide margin. When we look under the hood to find the common thread, market capitalization stands out glaringly. Furthermore, while lower valuations (P/E) have certainly provided a tailwind for value-oriented funds, the implementation method—specifically how these funds weight their constituents—reveals that moving away from market-cap weighting is the real engine of this size shift.

Ticker Fund Name Implementation YTD TR % Top 10% Wtd. Avg. Market Cap ($M) P/E (NTM)
SPYD State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF Equal Weighted 10.96 13.95 49,271 14.81
SPHD Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF Scored 10.14 28.74 68,734 13.96
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF Equal Weighted 10.11 16.04 118,723 19.19
QVMT Invesco S&P 500 Concentrated QVM ETF Scored 8.99 42.09 477,920 19.70
SPLV Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF Scored 8.77 12.77 101,820 21.59
RPV Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF Scored 8.74 19.24 48,157 12.12
SPHQ Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF Scored 7.85 40.74 390,088 22.10
RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF Equal Weighted 7.00 3.20 120,513 18.01
RPG Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF Scored 6.76 27.00 374,861 23.01
SPVM Invesco S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF Scored 6.38 31.26 128,820 14.15
RWL Invesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF Revenue 5.74 23.44 523,776 17.13
SPHB Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF Scored 5.24 14.06 229,319 18.51
SPYV State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF Market Cap 4.74 22.72 534,522 19.19
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Benchmark) Market Cap 0.60 36.42 1,277,688 21.38
SPMO Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF Scored 0.13 50.59 866,789 21.74
SPYG State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF Market Cap -2.93 59.89 1,972,131 24.00

The Mega-Cap Drag

Notice the bottom of the table. The benchmark (SPY) is barely positive at 0.60%, sporting a massive weighted average market cap of over $1.27 Trillion. The only two funds underperforming or barely keeping pace are Momentum (SPMO) and Growth (SPYG). They both carry staggering average market caps of $866 Billion and $1.97 Trillion, respectively, driven heavily by their reliance on market-cap weighting or implementation approaches that mimic those constraints.

Valuation vs. Size

Conversely, look at the top performers. While funds like SPYD, SPHD, and RPV do sport attractive NTM P/E ratios (under 15x), their defining trait isn’t just cheapness—it’s their implementation. By using Equal Weighted or Scored methodologies, they forcefully break the market-cap mold, resulting in vastly lower average market caps between $48 Billion and $68 Billion.

To truly drive this point home, consider the historical relationship between the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and the standard market-cap weighted SPY. The chart below clearly illustrates the inflection point: as the weight of the top 10% of SPY constituents began its dramatic ascent, market-cap weighting’s outperformance accelerated in tandem.

RSP vs. SPY Total Return and Top 10% Weight in SPY

My point here is not to suggest that factors don’t matter. They certainly do. Rather, the data illustrates a structural reality: when a strategy weights securities by factor traits instead of size, it inherently dilutes its exposure to the market’s largest names. If the size factor is running hot—as it has for the better part of a decade—you can generally forget about a factor strategy keeping up with the broad benchmark unless that strategy also happens to heavily overweight those same mega-cap leaders. When evaluating factor strategies, recognizing how far a portfolio deviates from the mega-cap concentration of the core benchmark is essential for setting realistic performance expectations.

Disclosures: This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.