Daily Market Commentary: October 20, 2025
Macro Overview
U.S. equities capped a volatile week with a broad-based rally on Friday, shaking off earlier concerns about the health of regional banks. The market’s mood improved on the back of strong earnings reports from several financial giants and signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. The S&P 500 (IVV) closed the day up 0.56%, securing its best weekly gain since August. Despite disclosures of bad loans from some regional lenders rattling investors mid-week, the broader financial sector showed resilience, suggesting the issues may be contained. The positive momentum from equities was not shared by commodities, where precious metals saw a significant pullback after reaching record highs earlier in the week.
U.S. Size & Style
Friday’s session highlighted a preference for larger, more established companies, with large-cap value and blend leading the way. Large Value (IVE) posted a strong gain of 0.69%. In contrast, small-caps faced headwinds, reflecting lingering caution from the week’s volatility. Small Value (IJS) was the notable laggard, declining by -0.44%, as investors appeared to favor the perceived safety of blue-chip stocks over their smaller counterparts.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value (IVE) | +0.69% | 1.72% | 1.23% | 4.71% | 9.27% | 4.65% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | +0.56% | 1.75% | 1.08% | 6.15% | 14.47% | 15.55% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | +0.53% | 1.78% | 1.04% | 7.32% | 18.99% | 24.67% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | +0.22% | 2.18% | -1.29% | 1.56% | 3.86% | 2.72% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | +0.20% | 1.93% | -1.29% | 1.86% | 4.41% | 2.27% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | +0.06% | 1.63% | -1.36% | 2.08% | 4.57% | 1.48% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.01% | 2.81% | -0.01% | 2.91% | 4.38% | 0.54% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.17% | 2.91% | -0.31% | 4.57% | 3.13% | 1.20% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.44% | 3.11% | -0.69% | 6.35% | 1.82% | 1.54% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Defensive sectors outperformed, with Consumer Staples (XLP) surging 1.33% to lead the S&P 500. The Financials (XLF) sector also showed strength, gaining 0.81% as solid earnings from large-cap banks helped investors look past the regional banking issues from earlier in the week. In fact, the Regional Banking industry, represented by (KRE), saw a sharp rebound of 1.60%. On the other end of the spectrum, Materials (XLB) was the weakest sector, falling -0.19%, dragged down by a significant -4.08% drop in the Metals & Mining industry.
| Sector (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | +1.33% | 2.09% | 0.05% | -1.02% | 3.36% | -0.23% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.86% | 2.48% | -2.79% | 6.64% | 5.17% | 18.95% |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.82% | 0.89% | -3.64% | 0.06% | 2.86% | -1.98% |
| Financial (XLF) | +0.81% | 0.04% | -3.20% | -0.30% | 9.08% | 11.20% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +0.67% | 1.90% | -2.94% | 8.12% | 19.78% | 28.37% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.67% | 0.82% | 4.90% | 8.44% | 5.52% | -4.31% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.65% | 3.34% | 0.78% | 1.53% | 5.75% | -2.17% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.18% | 2.38% | 5.14% | 9.31% | 23.14% | 24.64% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.09% | 1.22% | 0.80% | 0.37% | 16.33% | 10.94% |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.19% | 1.19% | -2.83% | -1.90% | 5.96% | -7.83% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.35% | 1.52% | 9.28% | 11.91% | 23.49% | 15.66% |
Global Thematic
Thematic ETFs saw a dramatic performance divergence, driven by the reversal in precious metals. Themes tied to precious metals mining were punished severely, with Silver Miners (SIL) plummeting -7.68%. In stark contrast, themes focused on technology and consumers, like Digital Payments (IPAY), performed well, gaining 1.30% on the day.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Top 5 Performers | |
| Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY) | +1.30% |
| Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) | +1.04% |
| Tortoise Essential Assets Income Term Fund (TPZ) | +1.01% |
| Putnam BDC Income ETF (PBDC) | +0.91% |
| VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) | +0.73% |
| Bottom 5 Performers | |
| VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) | -7.69% |
| Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) | -7.68% |
| Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) | -7.50% |
| Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF (GBUG) | -7.41% |
| iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) | -7.23% |
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed international markets ended the day with a mixed but slightly positive tone, as the broad Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) index edged up 0.18%. Performance varied significantly by country, with Hong Kong (EWH) standing out with a 0.95% gain. Conversely, major commodity exporter Canada (EWC) lagged, posting a loss of -0.67%.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong (EWH) | +0.95% | 2.57% | -2.80% | 4.59% | 29.91% | 24.37% |
| South Korea (EWY) | +0.73% | 9.66% | 10.89% | 21.16% | 73.94% | 45.32% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +0.55% | 4.65% | 1.02% | 13.28% | 23.19% | 20.35% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | +0.54% | 2.99% | 4.50% | 6.29% | 28.11% | 14.95% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | +0.27% | 3.55% | 4.96% | 9.61% | 33.59% | 25.39% |
| U.K. (EWU) | +0.19% | 0.81% | 0.67% | 5.62% | 26.64% | 18.85% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | +0.18% | 2.46% | 1.62% | 6.66% | 27.15% | 19.74% |
| France (EWQ) | +0.18% | 4.48% | 3.91% | 5.23% | 28.91% | 19.82% |
| Australia (EWA) | -0.19% | 1.82% | -0.81% | 2.44% | 14.54% | 5.02% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.50% | -0.34% | 0.78% | -2.29% | 32.19% | 27.08% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.67% | 0.84% | 0.60% | 7.64% | 25.60% | 22.48% |
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets were essentially flat, with the benchmark Emerging (EEM) index down just -0.02%. Country-level returns showed wide dispersion. Brazil (EWZ) rallied impressively, gaining 1.61%. However, these gains were offset by a sharp -2.85% sell-off in South Africa (EZA), which weighed heavily on the broader index.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil (EWZ) | +1.61% | 3.20% | -3.98% | 7.30% | 34.39% | 11.40% |
| India (INDA) | +0.71% | 3.18% | 0.80% | -1.02% | 3.44% | -2.65% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | +0.47% | 1.46% | -0.96% | 7.40% | 6.99% | 3.68% |
| Emerging (EEM) | -0.02% | 4.31% | 1.73% | 10.14% | 30.79% | 22.33% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -0.12% | 5.63% | 2.97% | 9.43% | 25.75% | 18.49% |
| China (MCHI) | -0.14% | 3.13% | -3.78% | 11.23% | 36.42% | 34.68% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -0.35% | -0.06% | -3.78% | -2.59% | -3.87% | -19.73% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -1.37% | 2.70% | -0.60% | 10.60% | 43.80% | 29.66% |
| Thailand (THD) | -1.74% | 0.86% | -4.88% | 5.57% | -0.61% | -12.08% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -2.85% | 3.30% | 7.48% | 22.10% | 57.91% | 40.27% |
Fixed Income
The risk-on sentiment was evident in fixed income markets, where credit-sensitive categories outperformed. Taxable High Yield (HYG) and Preferred Stock (PFF) both rose 0.26%. In contrast, longer-duration Treasury-focused ETFs saw modest declines as investors rotated out of safe-haven assets.
| Category (Ticker) | 1 Day | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxable Core (AGG) | -0.14% | 0.53% | 0.71% | 4.12% | 7.29% | 5.54% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.06% | 0.56% | 0.72% | 4.00% | 7.32% | 5.80% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | -0.04% | 0.49% | 0.37% | 3.64% | 8.16% | 8.21% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | +0.02% | 0.05% | 0.33% | 1.07% | 3.34% | 4.33% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | -0.06% | 0.32% | 0.50% | 2.16% | 5.39% | 5.37% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | -0.19% | 0.86% | 1.15% | 7.63% | 8.83% | 3.64% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | -0.03% | 0.17% | 0.46% | 1.76% | 4.35% | 4.86% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.21% | 0.35% | 0.55% | 3.19% | 7.29% | 5.70% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | -0.18% | 0.55% | 1.37% | 7.84% | 7.99% | 2.42% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.20% | 0.15% | 0.06% | 2.73% | 7.49% | 5.33% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.12% | 0.44% | 0.45% | 2.99% | 7.27% | 6.53% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | +0.26% | 0.96% | 0.06% | 2.19% | 7.16% | 7.44% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | +0.14% | 0.29% | -0.17% | 0.95% | 4.39% | 6.01% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | +0.26% | 0.90% | -1.62% | 2.20% | 4.99% | 0.24% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.41% | 1.28% | 3.26% | 9.00% | 19.78% | 21.41% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.01% | 0.63% | 0.82% | 4.57% | 7.97% | 6.28% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.16% | 0.38% | 0.90% | 1.86% | 3.49% | 3.67% |
| International (IGOV) | -0.37% | 0.88% | -0.91% | 1.38% | 10.96% | 5.33% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | +0.03% | 1.17% | 0.69% | 5.77% | 11.85% | 9.88% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | +0.04% | 1.03% | -0.09% | 3.23% | 15.63% | 10.98% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | -0.06% | 0.08% | -0.10% | 0.95% | 3.04% | 3.21% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | +0.00% | 0.53% | 0.98% | 4.87% | 3.26% | 2.78% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | +0.17% | 0.97% | 1.64% | 8.13% | 1.97% | 1.56% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | +0.14% | 0.53% | 0.56% | 5.45% | 1.58% | 1.10% |
Commodities
The commodity complex was dominated by a severe correction in precious metals. After a powerful rally, profit-taking sent prices sharply lower across the board. Palladium (PALL) was hit hardest, with a staggering -10.16% loss. Silver (SLV) and Gold (GLD) also saw significant declines of -4.43% and -1.88% respectively. In contrast, energy markets firmed up, with Natural Gas (UNG) jumping 2.50%.
| Commodity (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas (UNG) | +2.50% | -3.73% | -9.39% | -24.39% | -29.39% | -10.82% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | +0.94% | 0.90% | -6.34% | -2.86% | -2.44% | -0.78% |
| Energy (DBE) | +0.76% | -0.92% | -6.72% | -8.34% | -3.00% | 0.42% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | +0.32% | -2.18% | -8.77% | -8.68% | -6.94% | -5.37% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | +0.25% | -2.03% | -9.32% | -10.74% | -10.02% | -6.39% |
| Corn (CORN) | +0.17% | 1.39% | -1.90% | -0.06% | -6.55% | -0.85% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | +0.80% | 1.25% | -1.91% | -0.07% | 1.60% | 1.55% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | +0.00% | 0.25% | -4.71% | -8.37% | -15.98% | -23.00% |
| Copper (CPER) | -0.06% | 1.82% | 8.44% | -9.75% | 22.50% | 13.31% |
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -0.47% | 1.70% | 2.40% | 2.44% | 11.78% | 13.37% |
| Industrial Metals (DBB) | -0.62% | 0.62% | 3.51% | 8.91% | 11.14% | 7.83% |
| Agriculture (DBA) | -0.71% | 0.84% | -2.35% | 2.95% | -0.19% | 7.64% |
| Gold (GLD) | -1.88% | 5.38% | 15.44% | 26.46% | 60.65% | 56.45% |
| Precious Metals (DBP) | -2.65% | 5.30% | 16.09% | 26.57% | 59.56% | 55.03% |
| Silver (SLV) | -4.43% | 3.43% | 24.35% | 35.61% | 78.47% | 62.65% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -6.06% | 0.29% | 18.05% | 9.98% | 76.05% | 60.39% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -10.16% | 2.39% | 25.99% | 13.12% | 58.79% | 38.61% |
Cryptocurrency
The digital asset market remained under pressure on Friday following a week of significant liquidations. Major cryptocurrencies continued their slide, with Bitcoin (IBIT) falling -1.56% and Ethereum (ETHA) declining -1.03%. The negative sentiment appears to be a carryover from earlier in the week when market volatility was heightened by trade-related headlines.
| Asset (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -1.56% | -8.66% | -7.92% | -10.61% | 13.99% | 58.92% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | -1.39% | -11.27% | -25.01% | -0.69% | ||
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -1.08% | -8.28% | -10.40% | -8.54% | ||
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -1.03% | -4.17% | -15.33% | 11.82% | 14.43% | 47.05% |
What to Watch Today
Investors will be closely watching for the release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for September, scheduled for 10:00 AM ET. This report is a composite of ten different economic indicators, such as manufacturing orders, unemployment claims, and stock prices, designed to forecast future economic activity. As the results are not yet available, the market will be looking to this release for insight into the economy’s trajectory. A strong reading could bolster confidence after last week’s jitters, while a weaker-than-expected number might re-ignite concerns about a potential slowdown.
For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.
