Defensive Rotation Takes Hold as Precious Metals Rally

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities began the week on a cautious note, with the S&P 500 (IVV) slipping -0.15% as investors rotated out of technology and into defensive sectors. The session was defined by a clear divergence in style: Large Value (IVE) managed a gain of +0.01%, outperforming Large Growth (IVW), which fell -0.29%. A sharp pullback in speculative assets, particularly cryptocurrency miners and digital payment firms, weighed on sentiment, while precious metals like Silver and Palladium rallied, signaling a shift toward real assets and safe havens.

U.S. Size & Style

The defensive tone was evident across the size and style spectrum. While most segments finished in the red, Value factors demonstrated relative resilience. Large Value (IVE) was the only category to close in positive territory, albeit marginally. Conversely, Small Growth (IJT) lagged, dropping -0.39%, as risk appetite waned.

Name (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) +0.01% +0.01% 1.94% 5.23% 13.34% 9.87%
Large Cap (IVV) -0.15% -0.15% 1.31% 3.32% 17.30% 14.11%
Large Growth (IVW) -0.29% -0.29% 0.83% 1.70% 20.61% 17.49%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.12% -0.12% 5.31% 3.12% 8.79% 4.58%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.18% -0.18% 4.44% 2.25% 8.59% 3.53%
Mid Growth (IJK) -0.36% -0.36% 3.58% 1.43% 8.10% 2.26%
Small Value (IJS) -0.32% -0.32% 5.91% 5.96% 8.81% 3.36%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.32% -0.32% 5.88% 4.74% 8.51% 2.74%
Small Growth (IJT) -0.39% -0.39% 5.75% 3.45% 8.12% 2.02%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

Sector performance underscored a classic defensive rotation. Health Care (XLV) led the pack, surging +1.32%, followed by strength in Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). This shift was fueled by robust gains in the Pharmaceutical industry, with funds like iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals (IHE) jumping +1.50%. Conversely, Technology (XLK) was the worst performer, sliding -0.97%, dragged down by weakness in semiconductor and software names. Energy also struggled as Natural Gas prices retreated.

Sector (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Health Care (XLV) +1.32% +1.32% 2.81% 14.52% 14.97% 12.69%
Utilities (XLU) +0.91% +0.91% -2.61% 1.54% 16.57% 14.58%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.85% +0.85% 5.44% 1.33% 9.23% 4.26%
Real Estate (XLRE) +0.39% +0.39% -0.10% -2.55% 2.90% -1.24%
Consumer Staples (XLP) +0.28% +0.28% 3.08% 1.00% 3.25% -0.31%
Industrials (XLI) +0.16% +0.16% 3.28% 3.52% 20.36% 15.97%
Financial (XLF) +0.07% +0.07% 4.84% 2.78% 14.95% 12.62%
Communication Services (XLC) +0.02% +0.02% 4.71% -1.70% 21.47% 16.81%
Materials (XLB) -0.07% -0.07% 4.00% -0.30% 8.81% 3.14%
Energy (XLE) -0.70% -0.70% -1.78% 3.23% 8.13% 4.68%
Technology (XLK) -0.97% -0.97% -1.23% 4.26% 22.97% 19.80%

Global Thematic

Significant divergence emerged in thematic strategies. Miners of “future facing” commodities like Copper and Silver were top performers, led by Sprott Copper Miners (COPP). On the other hand, the crypto ecosystem faced severe pressure, with miners and blockchain-focused funds posting double-digit losses. CoinShares Bitcoin Mining (WGMI) plummeted -11.25% amid a broader selloff in digital assets.

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

International developed markets outperformed their U.S. counterparts, with Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) gaining +0.61%. European markets were generally strong, with Switzerland (EWL) and the U.K. (EWU) both advancing more than 1%. Japan (EWJ) also posted a solid +1.04% gain.

Country (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) +0.61% +0.61% 1.92% 3.72% 30.63% 26.90%
Australia (EWA) -0.38% -0.38% 1.81% -4.17% 12.42% 8.66%
Canada (EWC) -0.17% -0.17% 5.72% 7.32% 34.39% 30.65%
France (EWQ) +0.67% +0.67% 0.76% 2.94% 28.77% 26.32%
Germany (EWG) -0.19% -0.19% 3.03% 1.64% 34.49% 29.21%
Hong Kong (EWH) +0.69% +0.69% -3.29% 0.18% 34.99% 32.45%
Japan (EWJ) +1.04% +1.04% 1.06% 4.33% 27.51% 24.96%
Netherlands (EWN) +0.27% +0.27% 1.08% 5.40% 33.84% 29.64%
South Korea (EWY) +0.06% +0.06% -1.49% 17.10% 82.22% 69.63%
Switzerland (EWL) +1.18% +1.18% 2.62% 6.30% 30.95% 27.56%
U.K. (EWU) +1.09% +1.09% 2.29% 3.94% 31.70% 28.37%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets struggled to find footing, with the aggregate Emerging (EEM) index falling -0.29%. Performance was mixed at the country level: China (MCHI) was a notable drag, dropping -1.06%, while Thailand (THD) bucked the trend with a strong +2.40% rally.

Country (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Emerging (EEM) -0.29% -0.29% -1.60% 2.74% 30.55% 26.10%
Brazil (EWZ) +0.78% +0.78% 1.21% 10.06% 51.89% 41.57%
China (MCHI) -1.06% -1.06% -4.14% -5.53% 31.16% 29.87%
India (INDA) -0.08% -0.08% -2.78% -0.62% 0.87% -3.73%
Indonesia (EIDO) +0.53% +0.53% 2.61% 5.01% 4.80% -0.95%
Malaysia (EWM) +0.41% +0.41% 2.42% 6.03% 12.78% 13.78%
Mexico (EWW) -0.30% -0.30% 4.85% 5.56% 53.26% 41.22%
South Africa (EZA) +1.43% +1.43% 3.91% 14.25% 68.05% 51.34%
Taiwan (EWT) +0.02% +0.02% -1.63% 1.73% 23.86% 21.14%
Thailand (THD) +2.40% +2.40% 4.16% -0.29% 3.42% 0.04%

Fixed Income

Fixed income markets were relatively calm, with most taxable categories inching higher. Taxable Core (AGG) rose +0.10%, while Taxable Multisector (PYLD) added +0.19%. A notable exception was the Convertible (CWB) category, which fell -1.22%, likely tracking the weakness in growth-oriented equities.

Category (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Taxable Core (AGG) +0.10% +0.10% 0.24% 0.18% 6.87% 6.10%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) +0.06% +0.06% 0.27% 0.27% 7.05% 6.35%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) +0.19% +0.19% 0.78% 1.23% 9.12% 8.79%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 0.97% 3.98% 4.18%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) +0.05% +0.05% 0.44% 0.76% 5.70% 5.77%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) +0.06% +0.06% -0.53% -1.61% 6.06% 3.53%
Government Short (SPTS) +0.07% +0.07% 0.49% 0.90% 4.81% 5.16%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) +0.09% +0.09% 0.29% 0.40% 7.21% 6.67%
Government Long (SPTL) +0.11% +0.11% -1.01% -1.55% 4.96% 2.46%
Inflation Protected (TIP) -0.07% -0.07% -0.25% -0.67% 6.67% 5.61%
Corporate (SPIB) +0.09% +0.09% 0.60% 0.57% 7.55% 7.05%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) +0.05% +0.05% 0.95% 0.73% 8.06% 7.58%
Bank Loans (BKLN) +0.05% +0.05% 0.91% 1.86% 6.45% 6.56%
Preferred Stock (PFF) +0.06% +0.06% 1.08% -1.69% 4.92% 3.30%
Convertible (CWB) -1.22% -1.22% 0.91% 0.49% 16.34% 12.27%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) +0.14% +0.14% 0.38% 0.40% 7.84% 7.23%
International USD (BNDX) +0.10% +0.10% -0.23% 0.20% 2.76% 2.30%
International (IGOV) +0.21% +0.21% 0.14% -1.45% 9.94% 7.73%
Emerging USD (EMB) +0.14% +0.14% 0.83% 2.09% 13.53% 11.83%
Emerging (EMLC) +0.04% +0.04% 0.93% 1.87% 17.57% 15.24%
Municipal Short (SUB) +0.03% +0.03% 0.37% 0.18% 3.40% 3.46%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) -0.01% -0.01% 0.15% 1.00% 3.24% 2.82%
Municipal Long (MLN) -0.06% -0.06% -0.49% 1.10% 1.14% 0.78%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) -0.04% -0.04% 0.85% 1.26% 2.17% 2.15%

Commodities

Commodity markets were dominated by a powerful rally in precious metals. Palladium (PALL) soared +5.05% and Silver (SLV) surged +3.58%, as investors sought hard assets amidst the tech volatility. In contrast, the Energy complex weakened, with Natural Gas (UNG) dropping -2.12%.

Commodity (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) -0.37% -0.37% 0.13% 5.32% 15.92% 16.60%
Energy (DBE) -0.88% -0.88% -6.69% -5.20% -2.32% -0.41%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) -1.34% -1.34% -4.89% -8.54% -10.14% -8.52%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) -1.24% -1.24% -5.10% -8.10% -6.84% -6.47%
Natural Gas (UNG) -2.12% -2.12% -14.42% -3.49% -25.88% -12.44%
Gasoline (UGA) -1.34% -1.34% -10.16% -4.30% -0.94% -0.73%
Precious Metals (DBP) +0.87% +0.87% 9.21% 21.83% 69.37% 67.83%
Gold (GLD) +0.09% +0.09% 5.28% 16.79% 63.47% 62.02%
Silver (SLV) +3.58% +3.58% 26.44% 49.92% 120.70% 109.41%
Platinum (PPLT) +2.46% +2.46% 16.01% 27.15% 96.20% 93.29%
Palladium (PALL) +5.05% +5.05% 12.11% 31.12% 71.68% 64.19%
Industrial Metals (DBB) +0.18% +0.18% 2.97% 8.07% 17.88% 15.04%
Copper (CPER) +0.97% +0.97% 5.84% 14.19% 31.76% 26.91%
Agriculture (DBA) -0.68% -0.68% 0.96% -5.63% -0.94% -0.79%
Corn (CORN) -0.27% -0.27% -1.11% -0.44% -5.69% -3.06%
Soybeans (SOYB) -0.18% -0.18% -3.77% 1.03% 4.66% 6.62%
Wheat (WEAT) -1.36% -1.36% -3.80% -4.03% -15.98% -15.98%
Sugar (CANE) -0.47% -0.47% 2.04% -9.35% -15.10% -20.26%

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets faced intense selling pressure to start the week, erasing some of the recent year-to-date gains. Bitcoin (IBIT) fell -4.96%, while Ethereum (ETHA) mirrored the move with a -4.94% decline. XRP was the hardest hit among the majors, dropping -6.02%.

Asset (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
XRP -6.02% -6.02%
Solana (SOLZ) -5.07% -5.07% -11.03% -48.33%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -4.97% -4.97% -9.09% -29.04%
Bitcoin (IBIT) -4.96% -4.96% -9.00% -25.71% -8.28% -15.97%
Ethereum (ETHA) -4.94% -4.94% -6.63% -34.96% -12.53% -25.57%

What to Watch Today

Investors turn their attention to the Empire State Manufacturing Index, set to be released this morning. As one of the earliest indicators of regional manufacturing activity for December, a reading above zero would signal expansion and potentially calm fears of an economic slowdown. Conversely, a negative print could exacerbate the current defensive rotation. Additionally, market participants will be watching earnings from major homebuilder Lennar (LEN) for insights into the health of the housing market and consumer demand heading into the new year.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.