Macro Overview
Equity markets ended last week on a cautiously optimistic note, driven by a softer-than-expected reading on the long-delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. The core PCE reading rose +0.2% month-over-month, reinforcing hopes that the Federal Reserve would proceed with an anticipated rate cut at their upcoming meeting. This narrative drove the S&P 500 (IVV) higher by +0.18% for the day and helped propel the Technology sector forward. However, the gains were muted, reflecting market sensitivity ahead of a key Fed decision and a backlog of economic data releases. Fixed income markets saw modest pullbacks, with Taxable Core (AGG) falling -0.11%, and long-duration Government bonds posting the steepest losses.
U.S. Size & Style
Growth continued to outperform Value across most market capitalizations, reinforcing the tech-driven rally narrative. Large Growth (IVW) led the pack with a +0.31% gain, while Large Cap (IVV) gained +0.18%. Notably, Small Cap performance diverged significantly, with Small Value (IJS) barely clinging to a gain of +0.01%, while Small Growth (IJT) was the day’s laggard, falling -0.27%. This performance gap suggests investors are favoring quality and large-cap names as they await clearer policy guidance.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth (IVW) | +0.31% | +0.72% | +0.75% | +7.46% | +23.04% | +21.02% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | +0.18% | +0.32% | +1.20% | +6.26% | +18.15% | +14.47% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | +0.10% | +0.36% | +2.11% | +1.25% | +7.99% | +0.62% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | +0.03% | +0.30% | +2.72% | +1.07% | +7.77% | +1.15% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | +0.02% | +0.23% | +3.39% | +0.72% | +7.19% | +1.53% |
| Small Value (IJS) | +0.01% | +0.78% | +2.86% | +3.24% | +6.52% | +0.48% |
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.10% | -0.22% | +1.71% | +4.77% | +12.43% | +6.56% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.17% | +0.63% | +2.60% | +2.48% | +6.67% | -0.35% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.27% | +0.27% | +2.19% | +1.70% | +6.68% | -1.48% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Sector divergence was pronounced, highlighting the market’s focus on non-cyclical growth and transportation. Communication Services (XLC) led all GICS sectors, posting a strong +1.16% gain, followed by Technology (XLK) at +0.73%. Within industries, Transportation (XTN) was the overall leader, climbing +1.31%, and Retail (XRT) gained +1.24%, possibly on strong holiday sales optimism. At the bottom, Utilities (XLU) lagged significantly, down -0.94%, continuing its trend of weakness, with Health Care (XLV) also falling -0.42%.
| Sector (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services (XLC) | +1.16% | +1.51% | +3.27% | +2.48% | +22.06% | +18.46% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.73% | +2.44% | -0.64% | +11.68% | +26.68% | +22.98% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.55% | +1.27% | -0.66% | +2.03% | +7.43% | +5.91% |
| Financial (XLF) | +0.04% | +0.66% | +2.05% | +1.48% | +12.21% | +8.04% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | +0.01% | -1.15% | +3.32% | -2.31% | +1.72% | -2.68% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.02% | -1.63% | +0.15% | -2.08% | +3.11% | -3.31% |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.28% | +0.58% | +0.90% | +2.84% | +18.51% | +11.37% |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.33% | -1.36% | +3.47% | -3.66% | +6.33% | -2.54% |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.41% | +1.54% | +5.06% | +6.03% | +9.87% | +2.50% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.42% | -2.78% | +5.22% | +11.65% | +12.88% | +7.50% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.94% | -4.45% | -2.53% | +4.44% | +16.79% | +10.46% |
Global Thematic
Thematic ETFs showed a stark contrast in performance, heavily favoring Data and Infrastructure plays while punishing anything related to digital assets. The strongest thematic performers included Data & Infrastructure Real Estate (SRVR), up +1.93%, and Future Tech & Robotics (SNSR), up +1.80%. Conversely, the cryptocurrency complex suffered a major pullback, with specialized crypto industry ETFs like First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Econo (CRPT) collapsing -4.37%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Global X Hydrogen ETF (HYDR) | +2.00% |
| Pacer Data & Infrastructure Real Estate ETF (SRVR) | +1.93% |
| Global X Internet of Things ETF (SNSR) | +1.80% |
| Fidelity Cloud Computing ETF (FCLD) | +1.71% |
| VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) | +1.66% |
| … | |
| Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF (STCE) | -3.79% |
| Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) | -3.98% |
| Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) | -4.00% |
| Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) | -4.04% |
| First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Econo (CRPT) | -4.37% |
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed International Markets (EFA) was flat for the day (+0.00%), but saw extreme internal dispersion. South Korea (EWY) dramatically outperformed, surging +2.65%, adding to its massive YTD gain of +85.30%, likely on specific technology and economic news. Germany (EWG) also saw solid gains of +0.66%. At the bottom, the U.K. (EWU) was the worst performer, falling -0.46%, followed closely by the Netherlands (EWN) at -0.39%.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea (EWY) | +2.65% | +3.77% | -2.40% | +28.07% | +85.30% | +73.96% |
| Germany (EWG) | +0.66% | +1.20% | +1.67% | +0.17% | +32.29% | +25.88% |
| Canada (EWC) | +0.41% | +1.12% | +6.03% | +8.38% | +33.12% | +25.62% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | +0.21% | +0.36% | +4.75% | +3.16% | +28.66% | +22.74% |
| Australia (EWA) | +0.19% | +1.90% | -1.24% | -2.19% | +12.08% | +4.22% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +0.10% | +0.83% | +1.09% | +5.71% | +25.75% | +20.67% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | +0.00% | +0.65% | +1.75% | +4.38% | +28.90% | +23.35% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -0.14% | -0.85% | -0.18% | +4.11% | +35.18% | +33.01% |
| France (EWQ) | -0.29% | +0.11% | +1.69% | +4.84% | +27.17% | +25.26% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -0.39% | +0.65% | +0.50% | +9.50% | +33.36% | +28.62% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.46% | +0.16% | +1.43% | +4.02% | +30.10% | +24.63% |
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM) performed well overall, up +0.75%, driven by significant gains in Asia and South Africa. Taiwan (EWT) and South Africa (EZA) were the leaders, gaining +1.30% and +1.24% respectively. China (MCHI) also contributed with a gain of +1.10%. However, Brazil (EWZ) suffered a massive correction, plunging -6.31%, making it the single biggest decliner across all country ETFs, likely on a sudden shift in domestic political or fiscal sentiment.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan (EWT) | +1.30% | +1.30% | -1.03% | +8.54% | +26.26% | +22.46% |
| South Africa (EZA) | +1.24% | +1.71% | +7.07% | +17.20% | +63.88% | +49.23% |
| China (MCHI) | +1.10% | +0.74% | -1.10% | +2.14% | +35.02% | +36.03% |
| Emerging (EEM) | +0.75% | +0.77% | -0.69% | +8.50% | +32.15% | +27.96% |
| Thailand (THD) | +0.65% | +1.90% | +0.50% | +1.47% | +1.84% | -3.76% |
| India (INDA) | +0.39% | -1.35% | -0.61% | +2.84% | +2.53% | -2.54% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | +0.19% | +0.79% | +1.68% | +6.43% | +10.91% | +11.13% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | +0.16% | +0.80% | +1.51% | +4.96% | +4.58% | -3.73% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -0.20% | +0.38% | +2.23% | +7.60% | +49.35% | +38.54% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -6.31% | -3.21% | +1.34% | +9.79% | +47.14% | +33.81% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income generally saw negative performance across intermediate and long-duration categories as markets adjusted to the possibility of a less dovish Fed outlook. Long-duration government bonds, represented by Government Long (SPTL), fell sharply by -0.45%. However, higher-risk and short-duration assets showed resilience. Preferred Stock (PFF) was the clear leader, gaining +0.28%, and Bank Loans (BKLN) gained +0.05%. Taxable High Yield (HYG) was flat at +0.00%.
| Category (Ticker) | 1 Day | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | +0.28% | +0.31% | +0.09% | -1.05% | +4.34% | +1.16% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | +0.11% | -0.34% | -0.24% | +3.53% | +1.31% | -0.38% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | +0.05% | +0.19% | +0.81% | +1.86% | +6.15% | +6.45% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | +0.05% | -0.22% | +0.19% | +2.39% | +3.31% | +1.80% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | +0.02% | +0.09% | +0.34% | +0.97% | +3.89% | +4.24% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | +0.00% | +0.17% | +1.12% | +1.30% | +8.25% | +7.29% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | +0.00% | -0.06% | +0.45% | +0.84% | +4.63% | +4.91% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.02% | -0.30% | +0.58% | +1.35% | +7.91% | +5.97% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | -0.03% | -0.42% | +0.58% | +2.56% | +2.00% | +0.93% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.03% | +0.24% | -2.20% | +5.12% | +18.28% | +13.52% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.06% | -0.20% | +0.78% | +1.01% | +7.58% | +6.60% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | -0.06% | -0.14% | +0.48% | +0.72% | +5.60% | +5.45% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | -0.07% | -0.11% | +0.71% | +1.81% | +9.01% | +8.18% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | -0.08% | -0.02% | +0.42% | +0.07% | +3.18% | +3.21% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.10% | -0.45% | +0.62% | +0.54% | +7.26% | +5.94% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.11% | -0.39% | +0.53% | +1.01% | +7.19% | +5.33% |
| Taxable Core (AGG) | -0.11% | -0.46% | +0.49% | +0.91% | +7.00% | +5.02% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | -0.13% | -0.03% | +1.10% | +2.92% | +13.46% | +10.49% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.14% | -0.45% | -0.39% | +0.48% | +2.93% | +1.94% |
| International (IGOV) | -0.14% | -0.14% | +0.33% | -1.36% | +9.42% | +5.35% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.16% | -0.44% | +0.17% | -0.12% | +6.96% | +4.96% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | -0.27% | +0.08% | +1.53% | +2.67% | +17.25% | +14.45% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | -0.33% | -1.36% | +0.11% | +0.86% | +6.91% | +1.01% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | -0.45% | -1.73% | -0.30% | +0.64% | +5.67% | -0.71% |
Commodities
Broad Commodities (DJP) surged +0.88%, propelled by a major move in Natural Gas (UNG), which skyrocketed +4.53% on weather/supply dynamics. Silver (SLV) also saw a significant jump of +2.30%, benefiting from heavy ETF inflows ahead of the anticipated Fed rate cut. Industrial Metals (DBB) climbed +0.99%, with Copper (CPER) leading the way at +1.55%. The weakness was focused on the soft commodity space, with Soybeans (SOYB) dropping -1.16% and Wheat (WEAT) falling -0.81%.
| Commodity (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas (UNG) | +4.53% | +11.13% | +20.10% | +26.51% | -2.62% | +22.90% |
| Silver (SLV) | +2.30% | +3.40% | +21.31% | +42.30% | +101.10% | +85.40% |
| Copper (CPER) | +1.55% | +3.31% | +8.00% | +19.36% | +32.55% | +27.34% |
| Industrial Metals (DBB) | +0.99% | +2.05% | +3.89% | +13.23% | +18.99% | +14.94% |
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | +0.88% | +1.60% | +5.16% | +11.71% | +19.75% | +22.03% |
| Energy (DBE) | +0.83% | +1.61% | +1.57% | +3.31% | +4.31% | +9.23% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | +0.75% | +0.89% | +1.38% | -0.37% | -1.74% | +1.69% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | +0.74% | +1.20% | +1.25% | -0.98% | -4.80% | +0.63% |
| Palladium (PALL) | +0.54% | +0.43% | +2.62% | +30.79% | +59.24% | +50.40% |
| Precious Metals (DBP) | +0.36% | +0.41% | +7.99% | +20.05% | +62.87% | +61.52% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | +0.32% | -1.14% | +0.17% | +3.77% | +5.06% | +8.67% |
| Agriculture (DBA) | +0.23% | +0.38% | -0.11% | -2.36% | -0.26% | +2.26% |
| Gold (GLD) | -0.18% | -0.37% | +5.44% | +16.73% | +59.60% | +59.12% |
| Corn (CORN) | -0.22% | -0.68% | -1.11% | +1.83% | -4.90% | -0.82% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -0.34% | -1.90% | +5.45% | +19.01% | +80.24% | +74.38% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -0.34% | -1.93% | +4.53% | -8.58% | -16.26% | -23.49% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -0.81% | -0.67% | -5.26% | -0.72% | -14.11% | -14.64% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -1.16% | -2.42% | -1.67% | +5.06% | +7.22% | +8.94% |
Cryptocurrency
The digital asset sector experienced a sharp sell-off, likely driven by broad risk-off sentiment in anticipation of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and profit-taking after recent volatility. Solana (SOLZ) was the worst performer, crashing -5.56%, followed by XRP (XRP) down -3.98%. The two largest coins, Bitcoin (IBIT) and Ethereum (ETHA), also suffered significant losses, falling -3.47% and -3.87%, respectively.
| Asset (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | -5.56% | -3.12% | -18.99% | -37.72% | ||
| XRP | -3.98% | -7.16% | ||||
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -3.87% | -0.44% | -12.39% | -30.27% | -9.65% | -21.23% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -3.50% | -2.74% | -14.52% | -23.32% | ||
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -3.47% | -1.67% | -13.97% | -20.07% | -4.45% | -10.12% |
What to Watch Today
The most significant domestic data point today is the **JOLTs Job Openings (October)** report, scheduled for release this morning. While the data is lagged due to the recent government shutdown, it is highly anticipated by the market as investors look for concrete evidence of softening labor demand. The Federal Reserve has emphasized that a loosening labor market is a prerequisite for a definitive shift to rate-cutting policy. Later this week, the market will receive the much-anticipated **Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision** and economic projections. Markets are currently pricing in a high probability (around 88%) of a 25-basis point rate cut, but any deviation from this expectation, or a cautious tone from Chair Jerome Powell, could easily spark volatility across equity and fixed income markets. Traders will also be watching the German Industrial Production data for October, which saw a major upside surprise, gaining +1.8% month-over-month versus consensus of -0.4%, a potentially bullish sign for European equity markets.
For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.
