AI Valuation Jitters Spark Risk-Off Sentiment; Tech and Crypto Tumble

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities fell on Thursday, driven by a sell-off in technology as concerns over high valuations in the AI sector resurfaced. The benchmark S&P 500 (IVV) closed down -1.09%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw steeper losses. The negative sentiment was compounded by a private report showing a significant increase in announced job cuts for October and continued uncertainty from the ongoing government shutdown, which is blocking the release of key economic data.

U.S. Size & Style

The risk-off sentiment on Thursday saw growth stocks underperform, with Large Growth (IVW) falling -1.46%, more than double the -0.68% decline of Large Value (IVE). This trend was consistent across market caps, as Small Cap (IJR) also dropped -1.36%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) -0.68% -0.86% -0.64% 5.73% 9.79% 4.74%
Large Cap (IVV) -1.09% -1.71% -0.20% 6.25% 15.47% 14.87%
Large Growth (IVW) -1.46% -2.42% 0.11% 6.62% 20.35% 23.22%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.87% -0.77% -3.16% 3.07% 2.77% -1.69%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.96% -1.19% -2.61% 2.73% 3.91% -1.06%
Mid Growth (IJK) -0.87% -1.28% -1.81% 2.53% 4.84% -0.60%
Small Value (IJS) -1.73% -0.96% -2.42% 8.23% 1.77% -3.88%
Small Cap (IJR) -1.36% -0.73% -2.36% 5.93% 2.56% -4.11%
Small Growth (IJT) -1.07% -0.53% -2.35% 3.69% 3.27% -4.55%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

The sector map clearly showed the tech-driven downturn. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) led the losses, falling -2.31%, followed by Technology (XLK), which dropped -2.01%. The only bright spot was Energy (XLE), which climbed +0.97%, buoyed by strength in Oil & Gas Expl. & Prod (XOP) (+1.68%). Health Care (XLV) also managed a small gain, up +0.19%.

Sector (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Energy (XLE) +0.97% 0.16% -1.21% 5.08% 5.60% -2.51%
Health Care (XLV) +0.19% 1.17% 1.26% 12.33% 7.49% 0.33%
Financial (XLF) -0.36% 0.08% -2.40% 1.22% 9.56% 7.31%
Industrials (XLI) -0.40% -1.59% -1.64% 1.52% 16.99% 9.54%
Utilities (XLU) -0.44% -0.72% -1.46% 4.01% 19.30% 17.40%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.45% -0.89% -2.40% -6.73% -1.99% -2.42%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.49% -0.42% -2.23% -0.94% 2.45% -1.24%
Materials (XLB) -0.49% -1.02% -5.55% -2.66% 2.25% -8.94%
Communication Services (XLC) -0.90% -2.10% -3.53% 4.70% 17.13% 19.17%
Technology (XLK) -2.01% -3.83% 0.54% 10.07% 24.94% 24.69%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -2.31% -1.85% -1.84% 5.57% 5.65% 13.40%

Global Thematic

Thematic performance was dominated by the tech and crypto sell-off. Crypto-related themes were the hardest hit, with Crypto Miners (WGMI) plummeting -9.05%. Innovation (ARKK) also fell sharply, down -4.79%. On the positive side, Clincal-Stage Biotech (SBIO) led with a +1.21% gain, followed by Silver Miners (SIL) at +1.01%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change
Top 5 Performers
Clincal-Stage Biotech (SBIO) +1.21%
Silver Miners (SIL) +1.01%
Midstream & MLP RIC (MLPX) +0.44%
MLP C-Corp (AMLP) +0.15%
Gold Miners (GDX) +0.13%
Bottom 5 Performers
Amplify Blockchain Technology ETF -4.73%
Innovation (ARKK) -4.79%
Uranium & Nuclear Energy (URA) -5.80%
Cannabis & Vice (CNBS) -8.42%
Crypto Miners (WGMI) -9.05%

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

International developed markets were mixed but generally held up better than the U.S. The broad Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) ticked down just -0.22%. Hong Kong (EWH) was a notable outperformer, rising +0.50%, while South Korea (EWY) lagged significantly, dropping -3.22%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) -0.22% -0.57% -1.42% 5.54% 26.40% 22.52%
Australia (EWA) -0.79% -1.16% -3.29% -0.75% 12.59% 6.24%
Canada (EWC) -1.01% -1.95% -3.02% 4.23% 24.27% 22.07%
France (EWQ) -1.05% -1.94% -1.74% 3.33% 23.75% 19.48%
Germany (EWG) -0.83% -0.83% -4.79% -3.47% 29.03% 28.63%
Hong Kong (EWH) +0.50% 3.06% 3.06% 6.63% 36.10% 28.84%
Japan (EWJ) +0.19% -0.59% -0.37% 9.11% 24.64% 22.43%
Netherlands (EWN) -0.51% -1.43% -2.88% 12.70% 32.02% 28.90%
South Korea (EWY) -3.22% -3.60% 10.30% 27.78% 83.75% 61.32%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.32% -0.25% -2.64% 4.23% 22.43% 15.07%
U.K. (EWU) +0.02% -0.12% 0.09% 5.55% 28.30% 24.56%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets also saw divergence. China (MCHI) posted a solid gain of +0.96% and Thailand (THD) rose +1.15%. However, these gains were offset by weakness in Taiwan (EWT) (-1.65%) and India (INDA) (-1.25%), bringing the broad Emerging (EEM) index down -0.74%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Emerging (EEM) -0.74% -1.07% 0.42% 11.49% 32.07% 25.40%
Brazil (EWZ) -0.19% 2.79% 5.71% 16.72% 44.93% 20.39%
China (MCHI) +0.96% 0.63% -4.01% 9.61% 37.84% 32.55%
India (INDA) -1.25% -0.65% 1.63% 2.61% 1.86% -2.04%
Indonesia (EIDO) -0.54% 0.88% 5.86% 4.42% 2.47% -7.62%
Malaysia (EWM) -0.73% 0.62% -0.31% 6.60% 8.28% 7.85%
Mexico (EWW) -0.31% 0.66% 2.34% 10.22% 45.63% 34.44%
South Africa (EZA) +0.47% -0.11% -2.48% 13.41% 53.79% 37.40%
Taiwan (EWT) -1.65% -2.57% -0.14% 9.81% 25.46% 21.40%
Thailand (THD) +1.15% -0.25% 1.53% 3.47% 2.50% -3.70%

Fixed Income

Fixed income markets rallied as investors moved out of equities. The broad Taxable Core (AGG) gained +0.37% as Treasury yields fell. Longer-duration assets saw the strongest bids, with Government Long (SPTL) up +0.89%. The only notable laggard was Convertible (CWB), which fell -1.41% as it traded in sympathy with the equity sell-off.

Category (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Taxable Core (AGG) +0.37% 0.03% 0.61% 2.03% 6.87% 6.80%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) +0.34% 0.05% 0.61% 2.05% 6.99% 7.03%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) +0.15% 0.07% 0.60% 2.54% 8.40% 9.61%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) +0.01% 0.05% 0.32% 1.02% 3.55% 4.26%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) +0.19% 0.13% 0.41% 1.22% 5.29% 5.92%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) +0.73% -0.21% 0.80% 3.00% 7.57% 5.72%
Government Short (SPTS) +0.17% 0.13% 0.36% 1.17% 4.34% 5.20%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) +0.42% 0.15% 0.70% 1.55% 7.04% 7.22%
Government Long (SPTL) +0.89% -0.14% 1.50% 3.25% 6.94% 4.92%
Inflation Protected (TIP) +0.27% -0.13% 0.34% 1.41% 7.07% 6.10%
Corporate (SPIB) +0.30% 0.10% 0.28% 1.59% 7.06% 7.45%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) +0.04% -0.16% -0.23% 1.43% 7.09% 7.21%
Bank Loans (BKLN) +0.10% 0.14% 0.53% 1.68% 5.39% 6.56%
Preferred Stock (PFF) -0.19% -0.26% -2.07% 1.02% 4.05% 0.80%
Convertible (CWB) -1.41% -1.63% -1.21% 9.03% 19.24% 19.40%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) +0.39% 0.11% 0.79% 2.67% 7.71% 7.88%
International USD (BNDX) +0.04% -0.20% 0.91% 1.10% 3.38% 4.44%
International (IGOV) +0.48% -0.17% -0.66% -0.71% 9.58% 7.04%
Emerging USD (EMB) +0.33% -0.29% 1.36% 4.25% 12.60% 12.08%
Emerging (EMLC) +0.24% 0.23% 0.39% 2.68% 15.76% 13.27%
Municipal Short (SUB) +0.11% 0.02% -0.01% 0.20% 2.86% 3.63%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) +0.22% 0.02% 0.98% 3.90% 3.34% 4.47%
Municipal Long (MLN) +0.31% 0.04% 1.36% 6.18% 1.87% 4.12%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) +0.20% -0.17% 0.71% 4.42% 1.60% 3.03%

Commodities

Commodities were mixed. Energy was a bright spot, with Natural Gas (UNG) surging +3.96% and Gasoline (UGA) up +2.69%. Precious metals were quiet, with Gold (GLD) down slightly by -0.12%. Agriculture (DBA) was the weakest group, falling -1.66%, dragged down by Wheat (WEAT) (-2.52%).

Commodity (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) -0.19% -0.22% 1.56% 8.83% 13.65% 15.48%
Energy (DBE) +0.94% 0.49% 1.75% 2.83% 3.67% 5.21%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) -0.21% -2.32% -2.73% -3.94% -6.18% -4.91%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) -0.03% -1.86% -2.58% -2.16% -3.11% -3.11%
Natural Gas (UNG) +3.96% 6.94% 6.54% 4.65% -15.70% 10.10%
Gasoline (UGA) +2.69% 3.47% 6.72% 9.70% 7.72% 7.46%
Precious Metals (DBP) -0.22% -0.55% 0.04% 18.52% 50.50% 48.02%
Gold (GLD) -0.12% -0.56% 0.46% 17.90% 51.19% 48.99%
Silver (SLV) -0.23% -1.05% -1.16% 26.78% 65.40% 53.18%
Platinum (PPLT) -1.68% -2.77% -5.81% 14.49% 68.04% 53.80%
Palladium (PALL) -3.22% -4.73% 3.39% 20.14% 50.19% 31.61%
Industrial Metals (DBB) -0.37% -2.00% 2.43% 10.36% 14.11% 11.86%
Copper (CPER) -0.16% -2.22% -0.96% 12.27% 22.54% 15.55%
Agriculture (DBA) -1.66% -0.99% -2.36% 0.46% -1.81% 8.08%
Corn (CORN) -1.22% 0.20% 1.31% 5.40% -5.01% -2.35%
Soybeans (SOYB) -1.88% -0.69% 5.51% 8.81% 6.98% 6.34%
Wheat (WEAT) -2.52% 0.47% 2.90% 0.24% -11.62% -17.12%
Sugar (CANE) +0.46% -1.08% -14.00% -14.58% -19.51% -28.35%

Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrencies sold off sharply alongside other risk assets on Thursday. Solana (SOLZ) led the decline, falling -4.73%. Ethereum (ETHA) underperformed, dropping -4.14%, while Bitcoin (IBIT) was down -2.82%.

Asset (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) -4.73% -17.99% -35.16% -12.37%
Ethereum (ETHA) -4.14% -14.85% -30.15% -10.43% -1.15% 22.25%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -3.94% -9.71% -22.54% -13.99%
Bitcoin (IBIT) -2.82% -8.09% -19.68% -12.59% 7.94% 31.94%

What to Watch Today

With the ongoing government shutdown continuing to delay the release of official inflation and employment data, all eyes will be on the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for November, due at 11:00 AM ET. This report is one of the few available indicators of consumer health and inflation expectations. Investors will be watching closely to see if consumer confidence is holding up and if expectations for future price increases are changing, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.