A Cautious Tone: Markets Navigate Rotation and Uncertainty

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Macro Overview

U.S. equity markets finished the previous session with mixed results as investors navigated concerns over a potential government shutdown and continued a rotation out of high-flying technology names. The S&P 500, represented by the IVV ETF, managed a modest gain of 0.56%. The session was characterized by a defensive tilt, with investors favoring sectors like Utilities, while growth-oriented areas of the market took a pause. This cautious sentiment reflects uncertainty as market participants await fresh economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

U.S. Size & Style

Performance across U.S. size and style factors was mostly positive. While Large Cap Value (IVE) posted a solid gain of 0.77%, its Growth counterpart (IVW) lagged, advancing by 0.46%. Interestingly, Small Cap Growth (IJT) was a bright spot, climbing 0.84%, suggesting some investors are looking for opportunities in smaller, more nimble companies despite broader market caution.

Ticker WTD 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) +0.43% 0.77% 1.79% 6.63% 8.99% 6.85%
Large Cap (IVV) +0.56% -0.30% 2.87% 8.48% 13.99% 17.10%
Large Growth (IVW) -0.85% 0.46% 3.84% 10.08% 18.35% 25.56%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.10% 0.97% 0.24% 5.42% 5.17% 7.26%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.41% 1.02% 0.88% 5.99% 5.82% 6.52%
Mid Growth (IJK) -0.68% 1.02% 1.38% 6.38% 6.08% 5.34%
Small Value (IJS) -0.62% 1.20% 1.64% 11.28% 2.82% 5.34%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.66% 0.99% 0.96% 8.94% 3.90% 4.46%
Small Growth (IJT) +0.84% -0.70% 0.38% 6.78% 4.94% 3.23%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

The defensive rotation was evident at the sector level, with Utilities (XLU) leading all S&P 500 sectors with a strong 1.63% gain. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also performed well, rising 1.48%. Within industries, the Health Care space showed notable strength, particularly in Pharmaceuticals (XPH) and Biotech (XBI), which surged 2.62% and 2.18% respectively. In contrast, the heavyweight Technology sector (XLK) was a notable laggard, posting a muted gain of just 0.30%.

Sector 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Utilities (XLU) +1.63% 2.87% 2.50% 7.66% 17.07% 12.20%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +1.48% -0.52% 2.75% 11.69% 7.54% 20.54%
Materials (XLB) +1.16% -1.73% -2.89% 1.69% 7.12% -6.68%
Health Care (XLV) +1.02% -0.85% -0.68% 1.42% -0.20% -9.92%
Real Estate (XLRE) +0.99% 0.83% 0.45% 3.00% 5.34% -2.10%
Communication Services (XLC) +0.97% -0.69% 6.83% 11.42% 23.14% 33.59%
Energy (XLE) +0.92% 4.81% 5.15% 8.19% 10.05% 11.24%
Industrials (XLI) +0.90% 0.06% 0.02% 5.41% 16.98% 15.05%
Financials (XLF) +0.73% -0.39% 0.68% 4.34% 12.59% 21.38%
Technology (XLK) +0.30% 0.10% 6.14% 11.20% 20.48% 23.49%
Consumer Staples (XLP) +0.24% -1.11% -2.52% -2.08% 1.07% -3.39%

Global Thematic

Thematic ETFs showed significant divergence. Precious metals miners were among the day’s best performers, with silver and gold mining funds posting strong gains. Conversely, cannabis-related ETFs like MSOS (-3.74%) and crypto-focused funds such as WGMI (-3.68%) experienced sharp declines, highlighting a clear risk-off sentiment within speculative themes.

Ticker Name 1-Day % Change
Top 5 Performers
SURI Simplify Propel Opportunities ETF +4.75%
SLVR Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF +4.33%
SBIO ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF +3.61%
GBUG Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF +2.76%
GOEX Global X Gold Explorers ETF +2.71%
Bottom 5 Performers
KARS KraneShares Electric Vehicles & Future Mobility Inde.. -1.47%
URA Global X Uranium ETF -1.55%
STCE Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF -1.58%
REMX VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF -1.67%
BITQ Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF -1.80%

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

Developed international markets were mostly positive, with European equities showing particular strength. The United Kingdom (EWU) was a notable outperformer, gaining 1.32%. However, Asian markets were weaker, with South Korea (EWY) posting a significant loss of -1.28%, weighing on the broader developed market index (EFA), which gained 0.77%.

Country 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) +0.77% -0.40% 0.79% 4.62% 24.62% 13.13%
Australia (EWA) +0.76% -0.82% -1.11% 0.91% 13.48% 2.08%
Canada (EWC) -0.06% -1.40% 4.16% 8.93% 24.95% 22.49%
France (EWQ) +1.25% -0.21% 2.37% 3.44% 24.24% 9.27%
Germany (EWG) +1.10% -0.05% -2.21% -1.06% 31.62% 24.27%
Hong Kong (EWH) +0.52% -1.68% -1.63% 5.97% 29.41% 20.57%
Japan (EWJ) -0.02% -0.43% 1.93% 8.75% 20.85% 12.84%
Netherlands (EWN) +0.18% 0.49% 6.23% 5.84% 30.10% 14.28%
South Korea (EWY) -1.28% -1.47% 8.95% 9.63% 54.98% 20.43%
Switzerland (EWL) +0.74% -1.81% -1.54% 0.00% 20.31% 5.66%
U.K. (EWU) +1.32% 0.53% -0.38% 4.76% 25.17% 15.03%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets displayed a wide performance gap. South Africa (EZA) was the clear leader, rocketing up 2.64%. Other commodity-sensitive markets like Mexico (EWW) also performed well with a 1.45% gain. At the other end of the spectrum, China (MCHI) continued to face pressure, falling -0.68%, which dragged the broader emerging market index (EEM) to a slight loss of -0.19%.

Country 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Emerging (EEM) -0.19% -0.57% 4.98% 9.18% 27.25% 15.88%
Brazil (EWZ) +0.49% -0.65% 7.41% 9.24% 39.00% 10.07%
China (MCHI) -0.68% -0.19% 4.38% 15.81% 38.60% 32.08%
India (INDA) -0.46% -3.13% -0.57% -6.21% -0.74% -11.09%
Indonesia (EIDO) +1.09% -1.07% -4.24% 0.51% -2.20% -20.87%
Malaysia (EWM) +1.82% 0.55% 2.39% 6.90% 7.12% -2.44%
Mexico (EWW) +1.45% 1.57% 9.28% 11.32% 46.00% 28.50%
South Africa (EZA) +2.64% 1.22% 8.95% 19.48% 52.82% 31.07%
Taiwan (EWT) -0.51% -1.01% 5.45% 8.45% 21.21% 14.92%
Thailand (THD) -0.35% -2.36% 3.01% 15.62% 0.74% -11.51%

Fixed Income

The fixed income market was mostly quiet but showed pockets of activity. International Treasury Bonds (IGOV) were a bright spot, rising 0.45%. In the U.S., credit-sensitive assets like High Yield bonds (HYG) gained 0.20%, while rate-sensitive long-term government bonds (SPTL) slipped -0.07%. The aggregate bond market (AGG) posted a small gain of 0.07%.

Ticker 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Taxable Core (AGG) +0.07% -0.22% 1.04% 2.00% 6.00% 2.77%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) +0.04% -0.21% 1.00% 2.08% 6.07% 3.22%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) -0.07% -0.26% 1.02% 2.63% 7.40% 6.72%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) +0.03% 0.07% 0.38% 1.11% 3.13% 4.38%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) +0.04% -0.19% 0.29% 1.19% 4.63% 3.99%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) 0.00% -0.40% 2.46% 3.15% 6.33% -1.60%
Government Short (SPTS) +0.03% -0.10% 0.30% 1.01% 3.73% 3.83%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) -0.03% -0.31% 0.39% 1.27% 6.12% 3.12%
Government Long (SPTL) -0.07% -0.22% 2.54% 2.31% 5.20% -3.86%
Inflation Protected (TIP) +0.02% -0.30% 0.50% 2.08% 6.75% 3.68%
Corporate (SPIB) +0.03% -0.32% 0.67% 2.09% 6.44% 5.08%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) +0.20% -0.22% 0.74% 2.35% 7.13% 7.19%
Bank Loans (BKLN) +0.05% -0.03% 0.60% 1.92% 4.64% 7.28%
Preferred Stock (PFF) +0.25% -1.06% 1.09% 5.32% 5.69% 1.29%
Convertible (CWB) -0.07% -0.95% 4.26% 9.56% 16.41% 19.89%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) +0.02% -0.21% 1.30% 2.25% 6.59% 3.13%
International USD (BNDX) +0.08% 0.00% 0.49% 0.47% 2.42% 2.65%
International (IGOV) +0.45% -0.49% 0.45% -1.42% 10.20% 1.69%
Emerging USD (EMB) -0.03% 0.26% 1.94% 4.64% 10.79% 7.99%
Emerging (EMLC) +0.31% -0.51% 1.13% 2.74% 14.88% 6.36%
Municipal Short (SUB) -0.09% -0.31% -0.01% 1.10% 2.82% 2.98%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) +0.01% -0.20% 2.12% 2.65% 1.87% 1.17%
Municipal Long (MLN) -0.06% -0.31% 3.91% 4.33% -0.13% -0.97%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) -0.02% -0.43% 3.14% 2.52% 0.54% 0.10%

Commodities

Commodities saw a bid, led by a strong rally in precious metals. Silver (SLV) jumped 2.02% and Platinum (PPLT) soared 2.82%, reflecting a flight to safety. Energy was mixed, with WTI Crude Oil (USO) inching up 0.04% while Natural Gas (UNG) fell -0.95%. Industrial metals were weak, with the broad basket (DBB) declining -0.93%.

Commodity 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) +0.06% 2.02% 4.24% 3.51% 10.25% 10.15%
Energy (DBE) +0.33% 3.76% 4.10% 4.54% 5.61% 13.75%
Precious Metals (DBP) +0.81% 3.11% 12.28% 15.17% 43.46% 39.79%
Industrial Metals (DBB) -0.93% 0.15% 2.38% 4.55% 7.32% 0.95%
Agriculture (DBA) +0.52% 0.04% -1.60% 3.21% 1.47% 6.23%

Cryptocurrency

The digital asset space saw a notable split in performance. While Bitcoin (IBIT) dipped slightly by -0.26%, Ethereum (ETHA) rallied impressively, gaining 2.97%. This divergence could indicate asset-specific factors at play, as the broader crypto-related equity themes struggled during the session.

Asset 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Bitcoin (IBIT) -0.26% -5.25% -1.84% 1.31% 16.76% 68.13%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) +0.60% -6.16% -4.00% 8.46%
Solana (SOLZ) +1.82% -15.10% 0.08% 35.36%
Ethereum (ETHA) +2.97% -9.26% -12.52% 65.01% 20.44% 51.47%

What to Watch Today

Investors today will be closely monitoring the release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for September, which provides a key regional snapshot of factory activity. The report will be scrutinized for any signs of slowing economic momentum. Additionally, the market will parse commentary from a series of Federal Reserve speakers throughout the day, including Waller, Williams, and Bostic. Their remarks will be analyzed for any hints regarding the future path of monetary policy, particularly in light of recent inflation prints and concerns over the labor market.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.